Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With dynasty roster construction, mining the later rounds of startups is one of the small edges that can separate the haves from the have nots. Players from this range of the draft are many times the undrafted free agents, late-round NFL draft prospects, the grizzled veteran uglies, or yesteryears hype pieces that have lost their shimmer.
In any case, the ability to not only gain equity for your dynasty team exists in every round of a startup, even the later rounds where auto drafting feels almost necessary. Each of the following players listed, per Dynastyleaguefootball.com's June ADP, is being drafted outside of the top 150 players in both one quarterback and superflex dynasty league formats.
Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: Dynasty – RB51,153 overall | Superflex – RB56, 174 overall
Joshua Kelley is a running back who checks several production profile boxes. Kelley’s 77th percentile dominator rating and 69th percentile target share speak to his well-rounded skill set. Kelley’s not a back who will wow you with any single metric or testing time but with his 78th percentile speed and burst scores, he possesses the juice to get to the edge.
With only former seventh-round pick Justin Jackson and his 103 career NFL touches to contend with for duties behind Austin Ekeler, Kelley could carve out a meaningful role this year. The Bolts have stated they want to run the ball more this year after finishing 28th in rushing attempts last year. Last year after Melvin Gordon returned, he saw 13 carries inside the five-yard line compared to Ekeler’s two carries. Kelley doesn’t have to be the second coming of Gordon to chisel away at Ekeler’s early-down touches and goal-line work.
La'Mical Perine, RB, New York Jets
ADP: Dynasty – RB63, 188 overall | Superflex – RB62, 213 overall
La'Mical Perine is an interesting player who could walk into a starter’s job in 2021 should everything break right for him. If Le'Veon Bell is cut next year, the Jets will save 9.5 million dollars against the cap. While Perine’s athletic testing doesn’t leave you drooling, his ancillary metrics offer hope. After running behind an offensive line last year at Florida that ranked 93rd out of 130 qualified lines, Perine picked up 3.7 of his 5.1 yards per carry after contact. Perine showed the upside to play on all three downs, flashing a soft set of hands out of the backfield. Perine only dropped two of his 81 collegiate targets. His fourth-round draft capital is high enough that if he has the chance to perform if anything should happen to Bell this year, he could have multiple years as the Jets starting runner.
Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona Cardinals
ADP: Dynasty – RB64, 193 overall | Superflex – RB69, 224 overall
Eno Benjamin falling to the seventh round definitely bumps him down a peg, but the talent is there for him to smash if the opportunity lands in his lap. Despite the contract rumors with Kenyan Drake, he is still only on a one-year deal. The Cardinals proved last year that they could churn out elite production from a talented runner. Last year, Arizona had three different backs who served as starters for stretches. In Weeks 1-6, David Johnson started and finished as RB5 in fantasy points per game in point per reception (PPR) scoring. In Weeks 7-8, Chase Edmonds was the guy and, over that two-game stint, he was the RB8 in PPR fantasy points per game. Drake was the stretch run darling rolling his way to RB3 in PPR fantasy points per game in Weeks 9-17. The proof is in the pudding that Kliff Kingsbury can get fantastic numbers from his backs in this system.
Benjamin has the talent to make good on any opportunity. Benjamin's 87th percentile burst score helped him rank 15th in missed tackles forced last year. Tackle breaking ability coupled with pass-catching ability – posting 77 catches over the previous two years – is a wonderous pairing in this ascending offense. The upside for Benjamin is meteoric.
JaMycal Hasty, RB, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: Dynasty – RB80 231 overall | Superflex – Outside the Top 100 RBs
JaMycal Hasty’s landing spot as an undrafted free agent could not have been more perfect. Tell me if you’ve heard this tale before: an undrafted running back with exceptional lateral agility gets an opportunity in Kyle Shanahan’s zone scheme and crushes his touches, thus becoming the starting running back.
Yes, the trail that Raheem Mostert blazed could be the fable that becomes a reality for Hasty in 2020. Mostert is a 28-year-old running back coming off a career-high 151 touches. Jerick McKinnon’s injury history is well documented, but Mostert and Tevin Coleman have not been faultless pictures of health either. From 2018-2019, Mostert suffered a broken arm and knee sprain. Coleman dealt with a high ankle sprain and dislocated shoulder in 2019 alone.
Hasty and Jeff Wilson could be the last men standing at some point in 2020. If this scenario comes to pass, I will push my chips to the middle on Hasty. Unlike Wilson, Hasty is an explosive athlete, as seen by his 81st percentile or higher 10-yard split, 20-yard shuttle, vertical jump and broad jump. Hasty is also an exceptional pass catcher with 25 or more receptions in all four years at Baylor. Revel in having this year’s Mostert stashed before the breakout ensues.
K.J. Hamler, WR, Denver Broncos
ADP: Dynasty – WR69, 155 overall | Superflex – WR 71, 197 overall
After dicing up K.J. Hamler’s collegiate career, many items leap off the page. Hamler was highly productive from an early age, with his 87th percentile 19.2 breakout age. Hamler suffered a hamstring injury before the combine, so testing times were unable to confirm what is evident in game logs. Hamler is The Flash running from the slot with his 16.1 and 18 yards per reception over his two years at Penn State. Hamler displayed dynamic playmaking ability, as evidenced by his 600-plus special team yards in each season.
By selecting Hamler in the second round, the Broncos took a route that more and more teams are taking in today’s NFL. They faded any limitations and narratives surrounding Hamler based on his size. Hamler’s slight build of 5-foot-11, 178 pounds is only a marginal concern playing from the slot. Denver will run Hamler from the slot on nearly all of his snaps with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton flanking him on the outside. Hamler is underrated in dynasty. That’s all there is to it.
Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: Dynasty – WR76,183 overall | Superflex – WR75, 208 overall
Hunter Renfrow’s rookie season was quietly excellent. The Raiders' offseason additions of Bryan Edwards, Lynn Bowden, and Henry Ruggs elevate the entire offense while also creating more value for Renfrow in dynasty.
Renfrow’s per-target efficiency points to a much higher ceiling. Renfrow was a top 20 receiver in yards per pass route, as he finished 18th with 2.39 yards per route. Renfrow missed Weeks 13-15 due to a rib fracture and subsequent punctured lung. Upon his return, Renfrow stacked back-to-back 100-yard games, securing a touchdown in each. In his seven games played between Weeks 8-17, Renfrow finished as WR18 in PPR fantasy points per game. Renfrow will retain his slot role moving into 2020 and is a sound bet to remain part of the weekly game plan with Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota both averse to stretching the field.
Steven Sims, WR, Washington
ADP: Dynasty – WR83, 199 overall | Superflex – WR91, 233 overall
Steven Sims is the perfect target in the later rounds of drafts, as he's firmly trending upward. As an undrafted free agent, Sims did precisely what he needed to do to retain a role moving forward by playing extraordinarily well when finally given a chance. During Weeks 13-17, when Sims saw 58% or higher snaps, he was the WR19 in fantasy points per game.
Sims will be a primary beneficiary of increased passing volume this year in Washington. With new OC Scott Turner now calling the shots, look for Dwayne Haskins to drop back at a higher rate after the Panthers finished second in the NFL in pass attempts in 2019. Provided Sims retains the starting job over fellow slot wideout Trey Quinn, he will garner multiple flex worthy weeks with the upside for more.
Tre'Quan Smith, WR, New Orleans Saints
ADP: Dynasty – WR99, 232 overall | Superflex – Outside the Top WR
With the signing of Emmanuel Sanders, the candle might be dimmed, but the flame is not extinguished on Tre’Quan Smith’s dynasty hopes. Smith has been a model of efficiency when targeted over his first two seasons. Of the 120 wide receivers who have drawn 60 or more targets over the last two years, Smith ranks 19th in yards per target with 9.58 and 25th in catch rate with 66.7%.
In looking forward to 2021, the Saints are 31st in salary cap space – ahead of only the Philadelphia Eagles. If Smith again makes the most of his targets in 2020, it’s not impossible to see the Saints cut Sanders in a move that could save them $6 million against the cap. While the Tre'Quan Smith hype waters have been muddied, they are still drinkable. Invest in the value dip.
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: Dynasty – TE30, 204 overall | Superflex – TE31, 219 overall
For all of the Tyler Higbee love, a tiny voice still whispers, “Gerald Everett is excellent as well.” Over the previous two seasons, Everett has been a matchup nightmare playing inline, posting a 74.6% catch rate and 95.9 or better quarterback rating when targeted. In Everett’s seven games in 2019 with 54% or higher snaps played, he was the TE6 or higher in four games. The fantastic factor of dynasty is that players find second chances and career revivals with new landing spots at times. Everett is still only 26 years old and is set to hit the free-agent market after this year. If the sun sets in Los Angeles, there is hope with his talent that it rises again in a new city.
Foster Moreau, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: Dynasty – TE37, 238 overall | Superflex – TE40, 239 overall
After missing the final three games of last season with a knee injury, it’s fair to question Foster Moreau’s health, but his talent is indisputable. Moreau burst onto the dynasty radar after last year’s combine in which he tested in the 82nd percentile or higher for speed score, burst score, and agility score. Moreau was proficient with his targets in 2019 with an 84% catch rate, five touchdowns, and 118.1 quarterback rating. Darren Waller’s new contract is a glorified one-year extension. After 2020, the remaining years on Waller’s deal have no dead cap. Moreau is the future at tight end for the Raiders.
