Understanding and reacting to news for NBA DFS

When it comes to day-of news regarding a DFS slate, there may not be a more tilting and impactful sport than daily fantasy basketball. Between waiting on starting lineups to be announced, minutes restrictions, rotation changes, and late scratches, how each of these news updates affects your day-to-day research methods and lineup construction can be completely different.

Understanding the implications of NBA DFS news updates throughout the day and adjusting accordingly is one of the key factors in not only differentiating your lineups but also developing a successful long-term NBA DFS strategy. So, how do the various types of news affect the lineup building process?

Identifying value

Often, value plays on a slate are a product of news. The most common path to a value play comes when a player is ruled out for the day and their immediate replacement either steps into the starting lineup or sees a massive uptick in playing time off the bench. When it comes to identifying the correct value, simply looking at prior game logs as well as game flow charts are typically a good indicator of which player fills in when a starter is out. On top of that, typically day-of updates will provide the lineup replacement in the update itself.

Because FanDuel and DraftKings typically post their slates the night prior to the actual slate, they aren’t able to price up players based on day-of injury news or lineup updates, which gives the value players that step into the increased roll a much higher floor/ceiling combination than their price entails.

It’s important to target these safer value plays in daily formats (especially cash games), since the floor/ceiling combination given their expanded opportunities is much higher than most players around their price ranges, while also allowing more flexibility for the rest of your lineups.

Leveraging ownership

Continuing the theme with identifying value, when it becomes apparent with a piece of news (injury, trade, etc.), it’s also safe to assume that these players with the expanded roles will see heavy ownership, especially in cash games. Because of this, it provides a great opportunity to gain ownership leverage over the masses chasing the chalk value.

Going into a slate, if you’re high on a specific value or mid-tier player before apparent value arises, there’s a good chance that their ownership will plummet with the focus being on the new value play after injury news.

Taking it one step deeper, a common pitfall is rushing to a value or replacement player due to increased opportunity, regardless of matchup or situation. For example, if the Celtics are playing the Bucks and Kemba Walker is ruled out, Brad Wanamaker quickly becomes a value play that people may have their eye on given the fact that he has a high likelihood to start at point guard for the minimum price. With that said, the Bucks have ranked top-five in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last two seasons. With a significant amount of players flocking to value in a bad matchup, you could easily pivot off of Wanamaker and roster a player for a similar price in a better matchup, but at a lower ownership percentage because of the lack of news/buzz around them.

This is a great way to differentiate your lineups in small and large-field GPP if 30-40% of the field is rostering one value play and they bust, you enter with a massive leg up.

Identifying the biggest beneficiaries

Another key part in understanding how news affects a DFS slate is familiarizing yourself with who the true beneficiary of the news is. It’s easy to assume that if a starting point guard is out, his direct replacement would see the biggest bump. While that may be true in terms of playing time (since a bench player going from 15 to 30 minutes is a massive jump), the same cannot be said for production.

The best way to figure this out is by utilizing an on-/off-court tool. (Stay tuned, as we will have one at FTN soon.) This type of tool is designed with this specific strategy in mind; to highlight who benefits the most when specific players are off the court. Highlighting a scenario below, this will give you a solid idea of how news could affect the rest of a team:

Rockets point guard Russell Westbrook has been ruled out due to rest tonight and Austin Rivers will be stepping into the starting lineup. While Rivers should see an uptick in minutes, he only sees a 1.1% bump in usage rate with Westbrook off the floor. In this situation, it’s James Harden who sees a massive 7.7% bump in usage rate with Eric Gordon receiving a 5.5% increase behind him. (All usage rates based off the 2019-20 season.)

While Rivers might be in line for the biggest uptick in minutes, that does not always equal production. It’s important to use an on-/off-court tool to analyze the effect on a team as a whole to see where the vacated production is reassigned. In this situation, many may chase Rivers due to the increase in playing time at a low price, but it could be a perfect chance to get the volume-dependent Gordon at lower ownership.

This brings up the important point that just because a player is entering the starting lineup does not always mean he’s in line for a massive increase in production. Take a team like the Clippers or Thunder. They both have elite sixth men off the bench in Lou Williams and Dennis Schroder. Part of the reason they are so useful off the bench is that they’re able to lead the second unit and command the usage. These are prime examples of players that often bait fantasy players with their news when they enter the starting lineup, as they see their production rates drop playing alongside the starters as opposed to the second units.

Effect on opponents?

While the primary focus surrounding day-of news in NBA DFS surrounds the team that the affected player is on, it’s important to also take into account how this can affect the team’s overall pace of play or defensive efficiency.

Take a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo. Being one of the premier rim protectors and overall defenders in the NBA, if he misses a game, this doesn’t necessarily bode well for the production of his teammates. This makes the Bucks a much more attackable team, which was proven during the Bucks/Suns game March 8, when Antetokounmpo sat out. While not the case every time Giannis sits out, the Bucks surrendered 140 points — 42 in the paint — and allowed 52 total rebounds.

While this is not always the case when a defensive superstar is out, it shows that there can be just as much of a positive impact for the opposing team as the ancillary players on the team that sees the increase in production.