Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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The Thursday Tipico Sportsbook primetime game of the week will feel a little different Thursday night. That’s the last day for NBA games before the All-Star break. The defending Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat head to Louisiana to face the New Orleans Pelicans. The hometown Pelicans are -3.5 favorites in a game with a 224.5 total. Miami is a +130 dog on the moneyline. These two teams met once this season on Christmas in Miami, with the Heat beating the Pelicans 111-98 in that game.
The Pelicans are at home where they are 10-8 on the season. They are also on the tail end of a back-to-back. Their record on B2Bs this year is 1-4, although a slightly better 1-2 at home on the back end. The Pelicans have a lot of highly drafted household names, but that has not translated into many wins — New Orleans has won just four of its last 12 games. Offensively, the Pelicans are one of the top-scoring units in the league, currently ranking seventh for points per 100 possessions at 117. They are horrendous on the other side of the ball though, giving up 118.3 points per 100 possessions, second most in the entire NBA.
The Heat come in having won six of their last seven games, with half of a back-to-back against Atlanta as their only recent loss. They may not have Bam Adebayo Thursday, which would be a blow to them on both sides of the floor. They average three less points and give up 10 more without Bam in the lineup, according to our on/off splits tool from FTN Daily. As it is, Miami is just 23rd in points per 100 possessions. Scoring has been a little bit of an issue for them. They are one of the better defensive units in the league, allowing just 110.8 points per game, good enough to keep them in the top third of the league in that category.
If Adebayo and Jimmy Butler play, this line is way off. The Heat should be favored if fully healthy. The Heat have a negative point differential in the double digits without Bam, so I understand why they are dogs if he misses this game. This is one of those games where strength faces strength as the powerful Pelicans offense faces the stingy Heat defense. Games like this are normally decided by the weaker matchup between the Heat’s struggling offense and the Pelicans non-existent defense. The key to betting this game for me is Bam Adebayo. If Bam plays, I want the Heat moneyline at plus money. They already beat the Pelicans once, they are hot lately, and they catch New Orleans on the tail end of a back-to-back tonight. If Bam is out, I still like Miami, but would play them getting the +3.5 instead Tipico is offering instead.
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