Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Summer Games are now in full swing. The first few medals have been handed out and the pool play has started for many of the major sports that bettors are used to betting on a daily basis.
The big shock so far is the U.S. men’s basketball team losing its first and only game of the tournament so far in an epic late-game collapse against France. The U.S. was outscored 16-2 in the final minutes to end up losing by 3 possessions. They were favored by a dozen or more, so this was a 20-point swing from expectations.
Luckily, Monday is shaping up to be a much better day for the U.S. basketball teams, both the men and the women. It’s also a great day for women’s sports in general if you are a fan of the USA.
Can anyone beat the U.S. women’s basketball team?
The short answer here is almost certainly no. The answer for Monday’s game is an even more emphatic no. The real dream team in Japan is not the men’s national team, but the women’s. The rest of the world has caught up to the dominance the U.S. enjoyed for years in men’s basketball. Most of the teams we will play have a few NBA players of their own and a lot of top-level talent that played American college basketball or at the highest levels of the international game around the world. On the women’s side, the U.S. is still head and shoulders over much of their competition. The women face an overmatched Nigerian team Monday and are favored by -29.5 points. The funny thing is even at -29.5, Tipico Sportsbook has them as a -120 favorite to cover, which gives them a 54.5% implied probability of doing so. These two teams squared off a few weeks ago as a tune up to the games. The U.S. women pulled out a 31-point victory that day, so do not be scared off by the big number. We have already seen it covered recently.
Can anyone beat the U.S. women’s soccer team?
Again, here the short answer is no, at least not in the early rounds. The women take on Australia Monday as a solid -333 favorite. You will not make money taking them at those odds, but we might be able to link a few other bets together to get a better payout here. One that I like quite a bit Monday is the Mexico men’s soccer team taking on South Africa. They are also a big favorite at -240, which implies a 70% chance of winning. The U.S. women are more like a 77% chance of winning at -33, but when you put those two together you can get a solid -118 payout on Tipico. Both teams should have no problem putting away their opponents, as both project for wins by over 1.5 goals as well. I am never a huge fan of taking goal lines as the flow of the game sometimes makes high-scoring affairs tough to bank on, but a straight moneyline parlay on these two 70% favorite would yield a nice return of $84 per $100 bet.
Who is the fastest woman in the world?
Jamaica has a long history of sprint champions on the men’s side, but one of the biggest favorites to take home a track and field gold medal this year is a Jamaican woman named Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce. She is a -120 favorite over her own countrywomen Elaine Thompson-Herah. Everyone else is well behind these two speedsters on the odds board. This will be her fourth Summer games, and she is fresh off setting the record for fastest woman alive. She is already a two-time gold medalist in the 100m dash. She has a few world titles under her belt as well. She is 34 years old, but her record time was set earlier this year, so I’m not trying to bet against her. The -120 is a short price, but it is honestly a tad low given her resume and the likelihood that she adds another gold medal to her resume.
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