Tipico One-Play Payday (May 18)

Welcome to an NBA play-In edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday,” we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.

The NBA’s new play-In tournament officially begins Tuesday night when the Charlotte Hornets will host the Indiana Pacers and the Washington Wizards will travel to Boston to face the Celtics. 

Here are the lines via Tipico Sportsbook:

Indiana Pacers (-2.5, -145) @ Charlotte Hornets (+120), 227.5
Washington Wizards (+110) @ Boston Celtics (-2.5, -133), 232.5

Now that the regular season has ended, here are some important notes to be aware of regarding playoff basketball…

1. Gone are the days of limited minutes and “rest.” Top players should all play to the top-end of their minutes ceilings, particularly in the play-In round as they are not seven-game series. Malcolm Brogdon is a good person to keep an eye out for today. Currently listed as questionable, if Brogdon plays, I assume he will see his full minutes load in a lose-or-go-home game.
2. Pace slows down. Yes, teams still play with pace, but game tempo and environments are more controlled during the playoffs as teams try and get the best shot available on every position, particularly in the second half.
3. Defensive intensity increases. This is self-explanatory; these games now mean something, and naturally, defensive intensity will increase. This leads to less efficient offense. Tying in with bullet No. 1, players who are able to defend multiple positions will likely see increased minutes.
4. Star players see increased usage while role players see decreased. With teams running more true “sets” on offense, these plays are typically run through a team's top scorer. Usage funnels to top-end talent on a team while role players play more into their natural three-and-D floor-spacing role. A good example of this will come from the Wizards/Celtics game, as I expect 70% of the Wizards offense to funnel through either Russell Westbrook or Bradley Beal. On the Celtics side, I would estimate around 55% of their offense will funnel through Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker.

Today’s One-Play Payday

Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers UNDER 227.5, 1.10u to win 1u. 

Over the last two months of the regular season the Pacers have been arguably the premiere team to attack in the prop market as they have played horrific defensively and at a top-10 pace in the NBA. That bodes well for high-scoring games, which is something the Pacers have become accustomed to. With that, this line is not factoring the Game 7 vibe that it should be. The four things I listed above are more influential the later we get into the playoffs normally, but the play-In tournament throws a wrench into that as this is literally a Game 7-esque “win or go home” game for both of these teams. With that, I expect the Pacers to slow things down and work the offense through Domantas Sabonis in the post more. Furthermore, I expect Brogdon to play, which improves the Pacers defensive efficiency by 3.79. 

We are also getting heightened defense for both the Pacers and the Hornets, which should lead to less efficient offense. That parlayed with a slower pace has me project this game for 221 points.

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