Tipico One-Play Payday (March 12)

The NBA All-Star break is officially behind us and with the first Friday of the second half of the season upon us, it’s time once again for the One-Play Payday.

If you aren’t familiar, we will bring you the One-Play Payday on Tipico Sportsbook — one play, whether a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play for the Friday NBA slate, to help sweeten what’s already one of the best days of the week.

Friday’s one-play payday is the Miami Heat -2.5 against the Chicago Bulls. At first glance, this may seem like a risky endeavor. The Heat are slated to be without Bam Adebayo for the third consecutive game while coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back. This is likely why the spread of this game is so tight, and it’s exactly why we should pounce on the value. 

Over the last two games without Adebayo, the Heat have gone 2-0 with an average margin of victory of nine points, beating the Pelicans by a score of 103-93 and the Magic by a score of 111-103. While Orlando is the No. 26 team in terms of offensive efficiency, the Pelicans are eighth, so it’s not like the Heat had a cakewalk pair of games, either. The underlying metrics have supported this record, as the Heat see a 4.59 boost in offensive rating (110.63) in games without Adebayo this season while averaging 9.94 more points per game (118.33) and running at a pace of 100.54 possessions per game (0.72 boost over their season average). This is not to say Adebayo is a detriment to their team, but it’s worth noting that they’re able to perform well without him.

Kelly Olynyk has stepped in seamlessly over the last two games, which has been a major factor in the Heat’s performance. He’s averaged 19.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals in just under 36 minutes per game. Given the fact that the Bulls rank 26th against stretch bigs and 26th against rebounders (per FTN’s advanced NBA DvP tool), he should continue to fill in admirably for Adebayo. Add that into the fact that the Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic are back in the rotation, the Heat have more than enough weapons to get it done.

Chicago, like Miami, is also coming off a game Thursday. While they’re one of the better teams in the NBA against the spread, they rank in the bottom half of the NBA against the spread (8-11, 42.1%) as the home team and their win percentage gets incrementally worse (41.7%) when they’re listed as the underdog at home. Their offense certainly has explosive potential, but outside of Zach LaVine, they’ve demonstrated too many inconsistencies. Against a Heat team that’s in the midst of a stretch where they’ve won eight of their last nine games, the 2.5-point spread feels a touch too tight, making the Heat -2.5 the Tipico One-Play Payday of the day.

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