Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to a playoff edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday”, we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.
We have a juicy two-game NBA betting slate on tap, here are today’s games and odds via Tipico Sportsbook:
Milwaukee Bucks (-105) @ Brooklyn Nets (-1.5, -115), 235.5
Denver Nuggets (+160) @ Phoenix Suns (-5.5, -200), 220.5
Today’s One-Play PayDay is the Milwaukee Bucks ML (-105) to beat the Brooklyn Nets, 1.05u to win 1u
After losing James Harden in the first minute of the first game of this series, the Nets surprisingly were able to take care of business and beat the Bucks in Game 1 in comfortable fashion. The two most surprising factors in that first game for the Nets were that Kevin Durant was not shooting the ball particularly well (12-25) and Blake Griffin found the fountain of youth to score 18 points and grab 14 rebounds.
For the Bucks, their offense was iso-oriented and really failed to do much at all. Giannis went 16-24 from the field, but the real issues were with Khris Middleton (6-23) and Jrue Holiday (7-19) shooting a combined 2-12 from three-point range. The Bucks failed to really get anything out of their complimentary bench pieces as well between Bryn Forbes, Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis.
The Nets will remain without James Harden and Jeff Green in Game 2, and I expect the Bucks to dramatically alter their game-plan after their really disappointing offensive showing last game. Even at home, I expect Blake Griffin to regress his offensive production enough to make up for the fact I expect to see a more efficient Kevin Durant. The real key for the Bucks is that Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Bryn Forbes all shoot the ball better, which they should as they missed some fairly easy looks. I expect this Nets team to still win this series, even if James Harden does not play another game but at -105, Milwaukee is good value coming off of a loss against a team missing one of its key players.
Bonus pick: Bucks vs Nets UNDER 235.5, 1.1u to win 1u.
Yes, both of these teams are elite offensively and play at a fast pace, but this is playoff basketball where pace naturally slows down. Game 1 opened at 240.5, and we’ve already seen the dramatic drop in Game 2 at 235.5. This is still a bit too high in my eyes, even when calculating the expected improvement in shooting on the Milwaukee side from three (20% in Game 1). Game 1 featured 124 combined points in the first half and ended with 222. As the defensive intensity and game environment got more intense, pace slowed down and defense improved. This is just how NBA playoffs games go, as the team with the lead late also dramatically slows its pace down. This game projects for 229 points for me.
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