Tipico One-Play Payday (June 28)

Welcome to a playoff edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday,” we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.

We’ve got a juicy Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Phoenix Suns. Here are the odds on Tipico Sportsbook:

Los Angeles Clippers (+180) @ Phoenix Suns (-5.5, -220), total: 213.5

Kawhi Leonard remains out for the Los Angeles Clippers.

Today’s One-Play Payday is Ivica Zubac OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-114) 2.28u to win 2u

After only playing 18 minutes in Game 1 of this series, Zubac has played 34, 33 and 40 minutes in each of the last three games. In those games, Zubac has snagged 11, 16 and 14 rebounds. Excluding Game 1, Zubac is averaging 35.5 minutes and 13.7 rebounds per game while averaging 25 rebounding opportunities. His rebounding chance percentage (rebounds/rebound chances) stands at 54.8%. Interestingly enough, Zubac’s contested rebounds in his last three games is 6.3. In comparison, Deandre Ayton sits at 7.3.

Both teams continue to play elite defensively as well, holding each other to nearly identical true shooting percentages (53.6% for the Clippers, 53.5% for the Suns) while not turning the ball over frequently at all. This means that when there is a change of a possession, 90% of the time it is coming from a missed shot.

The only risk to Zubac not covering the 10.5 rebounds is Ty Lue changing his rotation in a “win or go home” Game 5, or foul trouble. Zubac projects for 12.48 rebounds in 32 minutes, and 15.6 rebounds if he plays 40 minutes again. I am confident Zubac continues to see his heavy workload and thus comfortable putting 2u on this play. During this series, no Clipper has had a higher net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) than Zubac — of every single four-game sample for every player this postseason, Zubac’s net rating in his current stretch ranks ninth. At the end of the day, the Clippers are a better team with Zubac on the floor, especially this series when matched up against Ayton where, unless there is serious foul trouble, it’s hard to see Ty Lue opting to revert back to their super-small ball lineup with Nicolas Batum and Marcus Morris playing the 5.

To confirm, Monday’s Tipico OnePlay Payday is Ivica Zubac OVER 10.5 rebounds (-114), 2.28u risked to win 2u.

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