Tipico One-Play Payday (June 14)

Welcome to a playoff edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday”, we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.

We have a juicy two-game NBA betting slate on tap, here are today’s games and odds via Tipico Sportsbook:

Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5, -160) @ Atlanta Hawks (+130), 225.5
Utah Jazz (+160) @ Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, -200), 223.5

Today’s Tipico One-Play Payday is the Philadelphia 76ers ML (-160), 1.6u to win 1u.

Yes, the Sixers lost Game 1 but since then, they have absolutely looked and been the better team this series. The Sixers are up 2-1 in the best-of-seven series having won the last two games by double digits. For playoff standards, both of those games were blowouts, as it never seemed like Philly would lose control or the lead in either game.

-160 feels like an over-correction to home-court advantage and the Danny Green injury. In games without Danny Green this year, the Sixers have improved in every single important team metric. Their offensive rating increases by 4.76, their defensive rating improves by 8.74 and their net rating improves by 13.50. The Sixers plus/minus in games Danny Green plays is a respectable 6.25. In games without Danny Green, their plus/minus is an insane 22.00, a 15.75 point improvement. Their true shooting percentage as well as effective field goal percentage improves as well.

At -160, that carries an implied probability of winning of 61.54%, which I find to be good value. The Sixers carry the second-highest PIE (Player Impact Estimate) in the NBA this postseason at 57.0. PIE correlates to winning at an R square of .908, which is clearly a strong correlation. The Hawks have been good, but carry a PIE of 50.3 this postseason. During the regular season, the Sixers PIE sat at 53.6 while Atlanta’s was 51.1. Philly’s higher PIE makes sense, as star players have a greater impact in the postseason. This metric showcases that and why -160 is good value for the Sixers ML tonight. If handicapping this game, the Sixers should be -220 with about a 68.75% chance of winning this game.

To recap, today’s One-Play Payday is the Sixers ML (-160) against the Atlanta Hawks, 1.6u to win 1u.

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