Tipico One-Play Payday (June 1)

Welcome to an NBA playoff edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with the “One-Play Payday,” we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.

We have a juicy three-game NBA betting slate on tap, here are Tuesday’s games and odds via Tipico Sportsbook:

Boston Celtics (+600) @ Brooklyn Nets (-12.5, -1000), 232.5
Portland Trail Blazers (+110) @ Denver Nuggets (-1.5, -133), 226.5
Los Angeles Lakers (+180) @ Phoenix Suns (-5.5, -220), 206.5

Today’s One-Play Payday is the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns under 206.5 1.1u risked to win 1u. 

This will be the fifth game of this series, currently tied up at 2-2. The total of each game so far has been, in order, 189, 211, 204 and 192. During the regular season, the Lakers ranked first in defensive rating while the Suns ranked sixth. This series has also been played at the third-slowest pace of all of the first-round series thus far. At a starting point, what we have here is a game environment that dictates a low score (slow pace and good defense) but that is compounding by the fact that this is a pivotal Game 5 where both teams are expected to play at an even slower pace with about as much defensive intensity as possible. Furthermore, Anthony Davis is listed as questionable and unlikely to play in this game. Using the FTNBets NBA Splits Tool, in games Davis did not play in during the regular season, the Lakers saw slight regression in their offensive rating (-0.81) and averaged 0.51 less points per game. Now, these are such small impacts that you should not use this as a reason to take the under, more so a reason to show that the Lakers do not play faster or better offensively without Davis. 

The average pace (possessions) of this series has been 95.25 with the Lakers showcasing a poor 48.8% eFG% with the Suns slightly better at 50.6%. 63.6% of the Suns shots are from 2-point range while the Lakers are 60.7%. Both teams have continued to shoot really poorly from three this series with the Lakers at 29.1% and the Suns at 32.2%. In a game that I project for 92 possessions with both teams right around a 50% eFG% but taking the majority of their shots from two, we are getting good value on the under at 206.5. 

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