Tipico One-Play Payday (July 5)

Welcome to a playoff edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday”, we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook:.

The NBA Finals are finally upon us as the Milwaukee Bucks head to Phoenix to play the Suns for Game 1 on Tuesday, July 6. 

Here are how the lines have opened up on Tipico Sportsbook::

Milwaukee Bucks (+200) @ Phoenix Suns (-6.5, -250), 216.5

Today’s One-Play Payday: The Milwaukee Bucks ML (+200), 1u risked to win 2u. 

After it was declared that Giannis Antetokounmpo did not in-fact have structural damage to his knee and, to a greater extent, didn’t severely get injured, the question became, will Giannis return this postseason? The answer is yes, and I expect him to return in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Giannis was apparently cleared to play in Game 7 if the Bucks and Hawks were to get there, which would have been played Monday night. Using that logic, it seems clear to me that Giannis should be available, barring any setbacks, for Game 1 on Tuesday night. 

My interest in the Bucks ML is based strictly on Giannis’ availability as if he’s cleared to play, +200 is just too good of a value. With what I expect to be a healthier than expected Giannis, these two teams should be viewed as equals, not the Bucks as +200 underdogs. During the regular season, the Suns ranked third in the NBA in net rating at 5.9. The Bucks ranked fourth, with a net rating of 5.8. The Suns also ranked third in PIE (Player Impact Estimate) at 53.4. The Bucks ranked fourth at 53.3. For those unfamiliar, PIE is an advanced stat that correlates to winning at .948, which is the benchmark to beat for team advanced stat winning correlations. 

We can take into account that even if Giannis plays, he likely won’t be 100%, but this current game is handicapped as if Giannis will not play. A healthy Giannis would make this game close to a pick-em, with the Bucks potentially one-point favorites or at -110 on the ML. Giannis being active should sway this game to around Bucks +120. Because I think Giannis plays and isn’t limited, Bucks +200 is my favorite value on the board, and I expect we see some positive closing line movement. 

To recap, the NBA Finals Game 1 One-Play Payday from Tipico Sportsbook is The Milwaukee Bucks ML (+200), 1u risked to win 2u. 

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