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Tipico One-Play Payday (July 14)

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Welcome to an NBA playoff edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday,” we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.

Game 4 of the NBA Finals take place Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET as the Phoenix Suns look to go up 3 games to 1 over the Milwaukee Bucks on the Bucks’ home court.

Here are how the lines have opened up on Tipico Sportsbook:

Phoenix Suns (+155) @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, -190), total: 220.5

Today’s Tipico OnePlay Payday is:

Bobby Portis OVER 0.5 3PM (-111), 1.11u risked to win 1u

Game 4 of the NBA Finals features the definition of a one-play payday, as all it will take for Bobby Portis to win this prop is a single made 3-pointer. We saw Portis lose his role in the Eastern Conference semis against the Nets as Mike Budenholzer made adjustments and went with a smaller rotation against the Nets’ positionless basketball. In the Eastern Conference Finals, we saw Portis regain that spot in the rotation and clearly was a difference maker in his minutes even prior to Giannis Antetokounmpo getting injured, averaging 0.57 points per minute and taking 13 combined 3’s in those first four games. 

In Game 1 of the NBA Finals, we saw Portis play 14 minutes, going 1-of-2 from distance. In Game 2, we saw Portis play only five minutes, with the Bucks losing by double-digits for a second time. That was a change in Budenholzer’s scheme that did not work, and in Game 3 (back at home) we saw Portis play 18 minutes and go 1-for-3 from 3 as the Bucks won by 20. Role players always shoot better at home, and Portis is the type of role player a coach will inject as fans galvanize to him, thus getting the crowd going and creating a home court advantage.

Seeing that Portis played his highest allotment of minutes in Game 3, at home in a Bucks win, I project Portis to play 17 minutes in Game 4. In his last seven games Portis has played more than 10 minutes, he has hit at least one three in six of them. My full Portis projections are 17 minutes, 8 points, 5 rebounds shooting 3-for-7 from the field and 1-for-3 from 3.  With only minimal juice on the over 0.5 and with Portis’ floor of 0.6 3PM and ceiling of three 3PM in 16 minutes, I am happy to make this a true one-play payday and take Bobby Portis over 0.5 3PM. 

To recap, today’s Tipico One-Play Payday is:

Bobby Portis OVER 0.5 3PM (-111), 1.11u risked to win 1u. 

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