MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Welcome to a Friday edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday,” we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.
For today’s One-Play Payday, we are taking a deep-dive into the matchup between the New York Knicks and the Memphis Grizzlies at the world’s most famous arena, Madison Square Garden. The Grizzlies head to New York as 1.5-point favorites with the total lying at 215.5 with juice at -115 on the over and -105 on the under on Tipico.
Over the course of the year, the Knicks rank dead last, 30th, in pace, while Memphis has been one of the more fast-paced teams (sixth). Over their last five games, the Grizzlies seemed to have slowed down, ranking 16th in pace. Part of that is because of opponent and small sample size, as they have played the slow-paced Heat and Sixers, a middle-of-the-pack team in pace in the Jazz and two fast-paced teams (the Timberwolves and Hawks). I project this game to be played at around a pace of 97.
Both teams are really good defensively, with the Knicks ranking fourth in defensive rating and the Grizzlies seventh. On average, the Knicks give up 84.3 field goal attempts per game with teams on average hitting 37.2 of them for a 44.2% DFG%. The Grizzlies on average 86.9 FGA with their opponents hitting 40.2 of them shooting 46.6%.
So we can roughly estimate that these teams will shoot a combined 45% from the field with 170 combined shots attempted. That equates to 76.5 FGM. Furthermore, 66.5% of the Grizzlies shots are 2-point FG attempts while the Knicks take 65.8% of theirs. This ranks third and fifth in the NBA. The Grizzlies shoot 35.6% from three while the Knicks shoot 38%. Because both defenses are very good, I scaled their 3-point percentages to be around 36.5% combined with 66.3% of FGA’s to be taken from 2. This leaves us with 57.29 3PTFGA combined with 20.9 combined 3PT FGM. So we project 62.7 points from 3-pointers, and using the numbers above and difference, 56.35 2PTFGM for 112.71 points. That leaves us with 175.41 total points. On average the Knicks take 21.2 free throws per game with Memphis taking 20.6. The Knicks FT% is 76.6% with Memphis at 78.2% Let’s give Memphis the benefit of the doubt and say both teams shoot a combined 78%. With that, we can project 32.6 free throws in this contest.
So to recap, we have 62.7 points coming from threes, 112.71 points coming from two’s and 32.6 points coming from free throws. This sums to 208.01 points, which falls seven points under the Tipico total, thus making today’s Tipico One-Play Payday to be Knicks vs Grizzlies UNDER 215.5.
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