Tipico One-Play Payday (April 16)

Welcome to an NBA Friday edition of the Tipico One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with the One-Play Payday, we provide you with one play — whether a spread, total or moneyline — that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook. 

For Friday’s One-Play Payday, we are targeting the New York Knicks playing on the road against the Dallas Mavericks. On Tipico Sportsbook, the Mavericks are 4.5-point favorites with heavy juice (-125) on them. Tipico is offering even money if you are looking to take the Knicks and the four and a half points. The Knicks are also +160 to win, while the Mavericks are -200. The total of this game is 210.5 with both sides listed at -110. 

The Knicks head to Dallas as the slowest-paced team in the NBA, ranking 30th with a pace factor of 96.58. The Mavericks are also a slow-paced team, ranking 26th in the NBA with a pace factor of 97.91. We can expect around 97 combined possessions in this game. The Knicks are also one of the strongest defensive teams in the NBA, third in defensive rating. The Mavericks are a bit of a mediocre defensive team, as they rank 17th in the NBA. Where the Mavericks excel is on offense where they rank 10th in the NBA in offensive rating and 10th in the NBA in true shooting percentage. TS% takes into account all of a team's shots, including twos, threes and free throws. The Knicks on the other hand rank 22nd in offensive rating and 26th in true shooting percentage. 

These teams have already played once this month, playing April 2 to a 99-86 final in favor of the Mavericks, a lowly 185 combined points. Now, this is an exceptionally low score where the Knicks shot a putrid 36% from the field and 31.6% from three. The Mavericks shot 46.6% from the field, which is fine, but only 32.4% from three. The pace of this game was 93.5, which is about 3.5 possessions less then both teams' combined average. 

I think you can see where I’m going with this, but today’s One-Play Payday is Knicks/Mavericks UNDER 210.5 points. This line is respecting the Mavericks’ offensive ability and disrespecting the Knicks defense a bit too much. Sure, the Knicks may be without one of their premiere rim protectors in Nerlens Noel (currently questionable), but the Knicks under Tom Thibodeau are a team-oriented defense. Both teams play at a really slow pace, the Knicks are not an efficient offense while also being one of the most efficient defenses. If you bet $100 on the under in every Knicks game thus far this year, you would be up around $837. Whenever the Knicks play a bottom 10 paced team, their total should be around 207.5. We are getting three points on that, thus making it a good value to attack. 

The bet: Knicks versus Mavericks, UNDER 210.5 Points (-110), 1u.

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