NFL Week 9 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
Mass multi-entry is a common approach to daily fantasy sports, including the NBA game. Maxing out (generally 150 entries) in DFS tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings is a way to gain a competitive edge.
Today, we’ll look at how to do that to your advantage. Seeing someone enter 150 lineups might look like a shortcut to winning, but the possible combination of players on any full-size slate exceeds the number of available entries in the contest, so it’s more than just “enter 150 lineups and win.” That said, let’s determine the best way to MME our NBA DFS lineups.
Rule 1: Don’t use players who negatively correlate
This means you do not want to use starters and bench players at the same position, on the same team. The reason here should be obvious: If a starting point guard has a massive game, then the odds are heavily against his backup also doing so. Another example would be not using a center and power forward from the same team on the same lineup. If one guy is soaking up all the rebounds and putbacks, then there is less to go around for his teammate. Could both guys exceed value? Yes, in a perfect high-paced matchup. But it is definitely not the norm. Using three starters from the same team would be my maximum unless you are game stacking and/or hoping for overtime.
Rule 2: Hedge
Hedging is a technique used to either guarantee you get one side of your bet right or limit your losses. For example, if shooting guard is a weak position on the slate, use a starting SG on some teams, then use the less expensive backup SG on some of the other lineups. This is particularly effective if they are in a positive matchup (due to poor defense against the position) and also both get decent minutes. The starter will always have more minutes, but if the bench player gets hot he could get more of a green light to contribute.
Rule 3: Play guys who get minutes
This might seem obvious, but all too often you see amateur DFS players start someone who is only guaranteed 12 minutes per game. Or if someone is getting a spot start, people assume he is walking into 25 minutes. This is not always the case. The coach will more than likely tell you how much they plan on playing the spot starter, or you can go back and see what kind of minutes he got last time he got the spot start (given he is in the same situation with available players and coaching).
You can’t score if you’re not on the floor. You can basically cross anyone who doesn’t usually get at least 14 minutes out of your player pool. On the opposite side, there are certain coaches who let their starters get more minutes than other teams. Game logs are a big help here. If one starter is getting 34 minutes and the other one you are considering on another team is only getting 27, the guy getting the extra minutes should generally be in a higher percentage of lineups.
Rule 4. Look at the Vegas lines
You can’t play everyone. Let Vegas tell you which games to cross off your player pool. For example, if there are eight games on a slate, and there is one with an over/under 15 points lower than the next highest game, you can cross them off your research list. Fading low-total games will work more often than not. If the totals are lower than 200, I usually do not consider them on large slates. On shorter slates (five games or fewer) it is a less obvious fade.
You also can use Vegas lines to determine if the game will be a blowout. In games where one team is winning by 20-plus points, the starters will be pulled and not have an opportunity to hit their ceiling. Blowouts are hard to predict, but again, you can’t play everyone and have to take a stand. If you’re fading starters because of a blowout, you can then look at their backups — the minutes have to go somewhere.
Rule 5: Set salary rules for your teams
Your projections could give you a team that leaves $2,000 on the table. But in the NBA that will not be optimal most times. The most I would typically leave on the table for an NBA slate would be around $800 max.
Rule 6: Never go 100% on one player
It’s too risky. He could get cold, he could get double-teamed, he could get injured, his backup could get hot, there could be a blowout. There are any number of reasons putting all your eggs in one basket is a bad idea.
Rule 7: Work the percentages
A lot of people will adjust their percentages in optimizers. For example, if they want 25% of Kevin Durant, they will just change their setting from 100% to 25%. This is the wrong approach in my opinion. I would rather start removing players from my pool and adjust my projections to give me around 25% of Durant, instead of forcing it. By doing this, you are not eliminating 75% of potentially good lineups, but you are crafting an entire team. By doing this slower approach and measuring the percentages and players in all of your lineups you are becoming more focused on the task at hand and forcing yourself to make hard decisions, as opposed to pressing a button and hoping it gets it right.
Rule 8: Do we fade the chalk?
Not necessarily. If you like the play, play him. It is chalk for a reason, and that reason is generally that it’s a good play. That is not a popular opinion in the industry, but it makes sense. Now, do you want to use nine chalky guys? No. But there’s no reason you should fade every single guy who might carry ownership. If you play one chalky guy, you still have eight positions to get different at, which is more than enough. Also, if a chalky guy hits and you don’t have him you can kiss your money goodbye.
Rule 9: Game stacks
The NBA can produce some very high-scoring games and if you do not have multiple players from overtime or double-overtime game, it is going to hurt. The starters are going to get almost all of those extra minutes. If you are creating 150 teams and are interested in a game stack on a very high-total game, reserve at least 10 of those lineups to stack that game up and hope you get lucky. Overtime games are not a nightly occurrence, but they happen about 6-7% of the time.
Rule 10: Watch the news
In the NBA, you have to confirm starters nightly. The NBA is notorious for late scratches and spot starts right before tip-off. If you are not keeping up with news, I can guarantee you will eventually be getting a goose egg on your lineup, as well as missing out on the best value guys of the slate.
Rule 11: Don't tinker
You are making the team. You put in the work. Your money depends on it. If you have been wanting to play a guy all day and then pivot off him five minutes before lock, you are more than likely making a mistake and will only be able to blame yourself.
