Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Just as the NBA season concludes, we get to go straight into FIBA with the Summer Games! We have a small two-game slate, featuring the four teams in Group C of Slovenia, Japan, Spain and Argentina. Spain is widely viewed as the favorites to win this group, and potentially challenge the United States for a Gold Medal, while Slovenia is led by Luka Doncic, and any team with a superstar of Doncic’s caliber is certainly dangerous in an international event. We will go over a trio of core plays to build around, in addition to pinpointing others to add into your builds, and projected lineups. With that, let’s dive right into the slate.
Core
Rui Hachimura ($10,000)
So this may surprise some, but I intend on building around Rui Hachimura tonight, rather than Luka Doncic. Given the two-game sample of Doncic at these Olympic Games, his ownership should be close to 100% in any format. Of course, that won’t be the case, and he’ll likely fall somewhere in the 75-80% range in the big GPP. Hachimura does offer some extreme upside, given the usage he’s seeing for Japan. And while he doesn’t sport the same peripheral ceiling as Doncic, we may want to pump the brakes on Doncic’s own ceiling against a Spanish team that has historically done well defensively and plays at a relatively slow pace offensively. It’s entirely possible Doncic remains the highest scorer on the slate, but with his price now flirting with $13,000, I love a discount on Hachimura who should once again see 25 field-goal attempts in a must-win game for Japan.
Luis Scola ($9,000)
Luis Scola is someone I expect to see a dip in ownership due to his performance against the United States. The expectation should be Scola returns to his usual production against a poor Japanese defensive unit. Scola finds himself in a price range alongside Mike Tobey, Victor Claver, Vlatko Cancar and Marc Gasol, all of whom see a usage rate quite lower than Scola’s. Like Japan, Argentina is in a must-win situation in this showdown of winless nations. This very well could be Scola’s last game with the national team, and given the stakes, it would not surprise me to see a slight bump in minutes from the 28 he has averaged through two games to somewhere in the 31-33 range. The scoring will be there, but if Scola’s rebound rate sees any kind of boost, he should offer the value of a $10.5K player on this slate.
Sergio Rodriguez ($3,900)
Going back to the well here, as deep value is pretty bleak on this two-gamer. Rodriguez is going to give us 15-plus minutes, which in reality, is more than fine for a sub $4K player. He does offer a ceiling, but his probability of reaching said ceiling isn’t strong (nor is it for anyone in his price range). He can give us double-digit fantasy point production, however, and if he lands somewhere in the 14-18 fantasy point range, he will likely be in the optimal lineup. One thing I will add is Daiki Tanaka has played 24 minutes in consecutive group play games for Japan and has posted 12.75 and 14 fantasy points. He is the “point guard” for the Japanese, but they mostly run through Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe. There’s at least a decent floor for Tanaka, and his ownership should be a fraction of Rodriguez’s.
Others To Consider
Luka Doncic (obviously, but definitely his most difficult matchup thus far), Ricky Rubio, Nico Laprovittola, Daiki Tanaka, Zoran Dragic, Klemen Prepelic, Nicolas Brussino, Gabriel Deck, Gavin Edwards, Pau Gasol, Marcos Delia
Projected Lineups
Slovenia: Luka Doncic, Zoran Dragic, Jaka Blazic, Vlatko Cancar, Mike Tobey
Argentina: Facundo Campazzo, Patricio Garino, Luca Vildoza, Luis Scola, Marcos Delia
Spain: Ricky Rubio, Alberto Abalde, Rudy Fernandez, Victor Claver, Marc Gasol
Japan: Daiki Tanaka, Yudai Baba, Rui Hachimura, Yuta Watanabe, Gavin Edwards
