Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Just as the NBA season concludes, we get to go straight into FIBA with the Olympic Games! Today, we have a small two-game slate, featuring the four teams in Group C of Slovenia, Japan, Spain and Argentina. Spain is widely viewed as the favorites to win this group, and potentially challenge the United States for a gold medal, while Slovenia is led by Luka Doncic, and any team with a superstar of Doncic’s caliber is certainly dangerous in an international event. We will go over a trio of core plays to build around, in addition to pinpointing others to add into your builds, and projected lineups. With that, let’s dive right into the slate.
Core
Luka Doncic ($11,800)
I mean, this is pretty much a no-brainer. Regardless of slate size, the world is going to be on Doncic, and while you could make a case to fade his ownership (if doing so, the pivot would be Ricky Rubio), there’s simply too high a floor and ceiling, and his probability of missing his ceiling seems very low given the circumstances. In qualifying, Doncic averaged 21.2 points, 8.0 rebounds and 11.2 assists over 25 minutes per game, including a trio of double-doubles and one triple-double. He tallied 34 minutes in the final qualifying game, which should be his expected workload in any tightly contested Olympic game.
Rui Hachimura ($9,700)
Hachimura joined the Japanese team a little late, but he made an immediate impact, tallying 24 points over just 19 minutes against Belgium in an exhibition preceding the Olympic Games. This team is not very good, and if not for the automatic qualification as hosts, they were very unlikely to have been a part of the Olympic Games. However, the Japanese are built around Hachimura, and their offense will run through him as long as he’s on the floor. While the matchup isn’t great, as Spain represents one of the better defensive units in the field, if Hachimura is taking on nearly 30% usage, he’s ultimately the right player to spend up on. The pivot off Hachimura would be Luis Scola, although I don’t believe Hachimura will generate as much ownership as Luka Doncic, Ricky Rubio and Marc Gasol. Hachimura does, however, sport one of the highest ceilings on the slate behind Doncic with all the volume he is expected to take on.
Sergio Rodriguez ($3,300)
This looks like a bit of a misprice to me, as I’d probably have Rodriguez somewhere in the low $5K range. While Rodriguez likely comes off the bench, he should see a sizable workload, resembling that of a sixth man, and he generally eats up usage when on the floor as both a perimeter threat and facilitator. At a near minimum priced cost, Rodriguez offers cap relief in a slate that offers several top-dollar options with extreme ceilings, and using Rodriguez as a building block should create enough cap relief for an extra top-tier player (Rubio, Yuta Watanabe, Scola, Facundo Campazzo, Marc Gasol). I expect most to end up using Makoto Hiejima as a low-cost guard, who averaged 12 points per game in AsiaCup qualifying last year and is seeing sportsbooks list him with an 8.5 points prop. Rodriguez offers similar expected production at less ownership and can get hot from the perimeter in a hurry.
Others To Consider
Ricky Rubio, Facundo Campazzo, Daiki Tanaka, Jaka Blazic, Patricio Garino, Makoto Hiejima, Alex Abrines, Vlatko Cancar, Gavin Edwards, Yudai Baba, Luis Scola, Usman Garuba, Willy Hernangomez, Pau Gasol, Marcos Delia
Projected Lineups
Slovenia: Luka Doncic, Zoran Dragic, Jaka Blazic, Vlatko Cancar, Mike Tobey
Argentina: Facundo Campazzo, Patricio Garino, Gabriel Deck, Luis Scola, Marcos Delia
Spain: Ricky Rubio, Alberto Abalde, Rudy Fernandez, Victor Claver, Marc Gasol
Japan: Daiki Tanaka, Makoto Hiejima, Rui Hachimura, Yuta Watanabe, Gavin Edwards
