NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The Summer Games are finally underway and DraftKings has posted some great contest offerings for us to dig into on the opening four-game slate. FanDuel will also offer single-game contests for the United States vs France game which tips off at 8 a.m. ET on Sunday. Today’s article will cover the DraftKings slate. I’ll be playing the single-game slate on FanDuel so feel free to ping me in the FTN Daily Discord if you want to discuss.
Throughout the tournament this article will breakdown the upcoming games, give injury updates, projected starting lineups and of course some of our favorite players for the given slate. I’ll be in and out of the FTN Daily NBA Discord channel all day leading up to lock but will be around in the hour prior to the first game starting so don’t hesitate to ping me with questions and I will make sure to get back to you before the games get underway. It should be an exciting two weeks of international hoops, let’s get started.
Czech Republic vs. Iran
The Iranians are in for a tough run in this tournament. The lowest-ranked participating team on the FIBA rankings qualified during the 2019 FIBA World Cup and will be massive underdogs in all three of their group stage games. They will be extremely lucky to get a single win in Group A. Tonight’s matchup against the Czech Republic presents them with their best opportunity to do so, and just because the team doesn’t have much of a chance in this field doesn’t mean we can’t roster some Iranians in DFS. You likely don’t have any familiarity with the majority of this roster, but NBA fans will recognize former Grizzlies center Hamed Haddadi at $8.9k on DK. He’s certainly in play and in my eyes, a legitimate triple-double threat in this game. He was injured for most of the FIBA Asia tournament but in the two games he did suit up, the Iranian offense ran through him. Haddadi was 13.5 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists and 3.5 blocks per game in the FIBA Asia tourney. That being said, he’s still not going to end up a priority for me on this slate, but in my 20 lineups, I will have at least two or three shares of him. The competition in the Olympic tournament is a step up, to say the least, and that combined with his price keeps him from being a core play.
So, who else can we play from this Iranian squad? There’s Arsalan Kazemi, former Rice Owl and Oregon Duck who is still rocking in the Iranian league at age 31. He’s in play, but probably doesn’t make a ton of my lineups given the $6.3k price tag. If they were expected to be more competitive, I would have more interest. I’m finding myself looking toward the bottom of the barrel price-wise on this team, and that starts with Mohammed Jamshidi Jafarabadi at 3.1k (his name is smushed together on DK, but his wiki shows differently). He played every game in the FIBA Asia tournament and led the Iranians in scoring. His peripheral stats are solid, and he will be my highest-owned Iranian on this slate. If we somehow get wind that Jamshidi Jafarabadi will be highly owned, we can pivot to Behnam Yakhchali Dehkordi for $100 more. He’s better from three compared to the former, and his minutes and peripheral stats aren’t far off. None of these guys will be in more than a third of my lineups and if that changes, I will broadcast that in the NBA Discord channel.
Looking to the other side of this game, and throughout the rest of the tournament, if I’m being honest, you’ll be more familiar with the personnel compared to Iran. The Czech’s two key cogs are Tomas Satoransky (Bulls) and Jan Vesely (former Wizards lottery pick, currently stars for Fenerbahce). Vesely is likely not as you remember him if you don’t follow the EuroLeague. He was the EuroLeague MVP in 2018-19 and is capable of putting up some monster games in this tournament. At just $6.5k on DK, he was the first player into my lineup when I built a placeholder Wednesday night. He won’t be my highest owned player but just illustrating how much he stood out at first glance. For $400 more, you can slot in NBA mainstay Satoransky in a guard spot. Satoransky does a ton for this team and it was evident in the qualification playoffs, where he filled up the box score seemingly every game. Both Vesely and Satoransky will be rotated through my lineups with high frequency. You can look to players like Patrik Auda ($4.9k), Blake Schilb ($4.4k) and Jaromir Bohachik ($4.0k) for value to fill out lineups, all three guys can put up solid scores at their prices. I wouldn’t roster more than one of those guys in a lineup. We can close out this game with of my favorite values on the slate, Czech center Ondrej Balvin, who is the minimum $3.0k on DK. Balvin went undrafted in the 2014 NBA Draft and caught on with the Denver Nuggets in 2016 for their Summer League jaunt. Ultimately he returned to Europe without a contract and has been bouncing around various teams across the Euro landscape. For the Czech team though, Balvin is a force down low and should have a clear path to a double-double at minimum price. I’ll be using Balvin for value in a significant amount of my lineups.
Italy vs. Germany
The Italians arrive at the Olympics by way of winning the Belgrade qualifying tournament earlier this month. There will be no easy games for them in Group B, although I do think they make the knockout round as one of the two third-place teams to qualify. The Azzurri will add Danilo Gallinari to their roster for this tournament, who was absent in qualifying due to the NBA playoffs. At $8.2k on DK, I’m fine slotting in Gallo to a few lineups, but there are plenty of other Italian options that I prefer for their prices. I think the field will flock to Warriors guard Nico Mannion at $5.2k, who put up some very impressive scoring runs in the qualifiers. I will have ample shares of Mannion in my 20 lineups, but the player I prefer to get the most exposure to on this team is former Baskonia star Achille Polonara (who signed with Fenerbahce late last month) at a mouthwatering $5.4k on DK. Polonara is in his prime and does a little bit of everything on the court. His dual-position eligibility allows you to roster him with ease, and he will likely end up as one of my top five owned players in my MME build. If you want to look even cheaper on this team, NBA journeyman Nicolo Melli is just $4k on DK. I don’t think he possesses the upside of the other values in the neighborhood of his price range from other teams but he’s certainly fine to roster. You can run out some Simone Fontecchio ($5.5k) in MME builds, the Baskonia wing can get hot from the field and I doubt he’ll carry much ownership. Make sure you keep your eyes on the FTN Daily NBA Discord channel late Saturday night for Italian starters, Gallinari (likely) starting will bump someone from the first five. My guess is Melli heads to the bench.
The Germans also reached the Olympic competition by way of winning their qualifying tournament earlier this month, barely squeaking by Brazil in the final. Mo Wagner spent last season as a household name in Scott Brooks’ center roulette in Washington until he was dealt to the Celtics and eventually signed by the Magic to close out the year. He exploded off the bench against Brazil and it appears that DraftKings overreacted to his performance in that one, pricing him at $8.5k. I cannot bring myself to roster Wagner on this slate, considering he isn’t likely to start. The 28-point, six rebound game was not representative of what we can expect from him on a nightly basis, and Wagner is a fade for me on this slate. The rest of the German roster presents some good plays, however, and for me, it starts with Maodo Lo at $6.1k. Lo, a Columbia grad who currently plays for Alba Berlin, was a roller coaster to roster in EuroLeague contests this year. He seems to be more of a steady producer for the Germans though, and if his shot is falling could put up a massive score at his price. I also have significant interest in Johannes Voigtmann ($5.9k), who should still start over Wagner. The CSKA Moscow center is a good bet for a double-double and also possesses range out to the arc. Two other values I’ll snag some shares as secondary plays are Danilo Barthel ($3.3k) and Nils Giffey ($3.5k), especially if the former gets the start. Isaac Bonga doesn’t interest me, let others chase him.
Nigeria vs. Australia
Even though the USA/France game will be the most-watched, I think this game will be the most fun and competitive. Unfortunately, the schedule has placed this one in the middle of the night no matter where you are in the United States. American fans are very familiar with both of these teams and not just because the rosters are full of NBA players, but each team tagged the USA with exhibition losses earlier this month in Las Vegas.
The Nigerians are an up-and-coming program. They’ve installed Mike Brown as head coach, and he’s helped them procure a bevy of NBA-caliber talent. We shouldn’t be surprised if they make some noise in this tournament. They’re underpriced as a whole on this slate and because of it, there’s a slew of guys who can be rostered even with the rotation expected to be relatively flat. I’m fine rostering any of Precious Achiuwa ($5.3k), Gabe Vincent ($5.1k), KZ Okpala ($3.2k), or Josh Okogie ($4.2k), and I’ll have multiple shares of all those guys. If you want to throw some Chimezie Metu ($4.5k) or Caleb Agada ($4.8k) shares into an MME build, I won’t fault you for it. Lastly, although I don’t expect him to start, I think Jahlil Okafor ($5.7k) could put up a good score for his price. We know he’s very productive from a fantasy standpoint, and the Nigerians could really use his scoring prowess on the block against the high-powered Boomers. We saw him go for 15 points and seven rebounds in 14 minutes against Argentina earlier this month, and while the Aussie frontcourt is a bit more imposing than anything Argentina has to offer (sorry 41-year-old Luis Scola), the price is cheap enough where we can take some shots on Okafor.
If you’ve followed along with the FTN Daily NBA team this season, you’ll know I’ve been waiting for this since last fall. It’s International Patty season, and DraftKings is not naïve enough that they have forgotten. One of the most prolific scorers in the history of the Olympic tournament, Patty Mills ($9.5k) averaged 21.3 points per game in the 2016 tournament and even though he’s five years older coming into this one, I still think his price tag is warranted. The Boomers aren’t so deep that they can afford to not play Mills full minutes and when choosing where to spend up on this slate Mills is in the mix for the top option. Don’t overlook Jazz swingman Joe Ingles ($9.0k) though, who is also expected to be plenty productive throughout the tournament. Matisse Thybulle ($8.1k) is more interesting to me if he gets the start, but I think they continue to bring him off the bench and that makes his price prohibitive. He’s in play in GPPs if you’re running 20+ lineups, but I won’t have more than one share in my 20. I’m more likely to have shares of Jock Landale ($5.2k) or Aron Baynes ($4.3k) if I’m getting Aussie exposure outside of the top two. Landale was a monster in NBA Summer League a few years back and can get on top of his price if he gets 20+ minutes. I think Baynes will be needed to defend the Achiuwa/Okafor center rotation from the Nigerians, the only issue is the multiple other center-only plays who have higher upsides. I’m not super excited to roster Matthew Dellavedova ($3.4k), who lacks the ceiling I’m looking for. But he’s cheap enough to slot in if you feel like you must.
United States vs. France
While I’ll sit out the previous game in favor of a few hours of sleep, I will be setting my alarm to watch the early morning debut of the Americans at the 2021 tournament. We’re all familiar with the exhibition losses at the hands of the Aussies and Nigerians. People seem to be overlooking the wins against Argentina and Spain that followed. I’m still confident the USA will run the table, but we’ll find out quickly against France just how worried we should be. They’ll be the toughest test for the defending champions in Group A.
Rostering Americans in international play is always an odd adventure. With so many scoring options who are all usually expensive in DFS, you’ll have to call your shot on who you think takes their turn first to dominate the offensive end for the USA. The safest bet is surely Kevin Durant ($10.6k). There’s not a player in this tournament who can guard the Nets star, and his ability to get on the boards, dish out assists and rack up stocks (steals + blocks) makes him the highest salaried player on the slate, and my priority if rostering an American. Damian Lillard ($10.4k) is my second option from the USA, which isn’t exactly a hot take. To make matters tougher when trying to decipher the rest of this roster is the three players arriving Saturday in Tokyo from the NBA Finals, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Devin Booker. Coach Gregg Popovich has already said they will be available but has no clue how much they can play. After a few days of partying and a trans-Pacific flight, I’ll be staying away from Middleton and Holiday. If you want to roster Devin Booker at $8.8k be my guest, but I don’t think he’ll make it into a lineup for me either. The rest of my red, white, and blue interest lies in JaVale McGee ($3.0k) who could be needed to combat Rudy Gobert in the frontcourt. McGee DNP’d in his one exhibition game with the team after replacing Kevin Love, but let’s keep an eye on the starting lineup and pay attention to Pop’s comments leading up to Sunday morning. I want to play Keldon Johnson ($4.1k) with all my heart, but with so many other value options on the other teams, it’s not a smart play on this slate.
The French will get their shot at the reigning champs on Night 1 of the tournament, and Les Bleus could cause some real trouble for the USA. I won’t have many shares of Rudy Gobert at his $9.9k price tag but won’t roll my eyes if I see him in your lineup. It’s tough for me to get to him over the top Aussies and Americans. You might be wondering why former Spur and Raptor Nando DeColo ($7.6k) is priced above more household NBA names like Evan Fournier ($6.8k) and Nic Batum ($5.0k). If you haven’t been following along with the EuroLeague, you probably wouldn’t know that he’s been absolutely crushing it for Fenerbahce. DeColo is coming off a season where he averaged 16.5 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists in just 28.7 minutes per game and shot 57/40/95. I think he’ll go under-owned on this slate, and I like him as a somewhat contrarian spend-up. I’m fine getting to Evan Fournier for $800 cheaper, and Nic Batum could fill up the stat sheet at his much lower price. Frank Ntilikina ($3.6k) is in play as is Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($4.6k), but I think I’ll mostly get to different value plays from the other games. Another name you may not have heard in a while is Guerschon Yabusele, former Celtic and “French Draymond” nickname recipient. At just $3.1k, I expect him to play solid minutes with upside for some blowout run as well if the USA takes care of business. I’ll have a non-zero amount of Yabusele, and congrats to him on his move from ASVEL to Real Madrid earlier this month.
Projected starters
Czech Republic: Tomas Satoransky, Blake Schilb, Jaromir Bohacik, Jan Vesely, Ondrej Balvin
Iran: Mohammed Jamshidi Jarfarabadi, Behnam Yakhchali Dehkordi, Mohammed Nik Khahahrami, Arsalan Kazemi, Hamed Haddadi
Italy: Nico Mannion, Stefano Tonut, Simone Fontecchio, Achille Polonara, Danilo Gallinari
Germany: Andreas Obst, Maodo Lo, Niels Giffey, Johannes Thiemann, Johannes Voigtmann
Nigeria: Josh Ogogie, Gabe Vincent, KZ Okpala, Ike Nwamu, Precious Achiuwa
Australia: Matthew Dellavedova, Patty Mills, Joe Ingles, Jock Landale, Aron Baynes
United States: Damian Lillard, Zach LaVine, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Bam Adebayo
France: Nando DeColo, Frank Ntilikina, Evan Fournier, Nic Batum, Rudy Gobert
