2024 Wimbledon Betting Preview
Josh Gross
The Sixers are the early winners of free agency, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. It will take some unexpected moves for another club to top what they’ve done. In the wee hours of the morning, Adrian Wojnarowski confirmed that Philadelphia was indeed signing Paul George to a 4-year $212 million deal.
Wing play has long been a hurdle to the Sixers hitting their ceiling when everyone is healthy. Replacing Tobias Harris with George is a major upgrade. Even at 34 years old, this acquisition vaults Philadelphia into true title contention. He’s been a little “ring-chasy” for a while now, dating back to his re-up with Oklahoma City and then his subsequent jaunt with Kawhi Leonard in LA. I don’t care much about players, especially established veteran all-stars, looking for the best chance to win a title.
What does stick out to me is the experience George gained with his past two clubs. He’s played alongside other all-star caliber players for the last seven seasons in the form of Russell Westbrook, Leonard and James Harden. While the Western Conference Finals is the current high-water mark for George in his postseason career, there’s little doubt in my mind that he’s going to be able to seamlessly fit in with MVP candidate Joel Embiid and (as of last year) all-star Tyrese Maxey. Is he the piece that gets the 76ers back to the NBA Finals for the first time in over 20 years? I think he just might be.
George averaged 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game last season with 47/41/91 shooting splits. Again, keep in mind that this was alongside Leonard and Harden and that he was an all-star in a loaded Western Conference in each of the last two seasons. He’s an upgrade in nearly every meaningful category, on both sides of the ball, over Harris. Now, I will say that I think this deal turns sour before it expires. Over $50 million per season for a 37-year-old George? It’s the main reason why (next to the dreaded “second apron”) the Clippers balked at giving George the fourth year that he desired. If the Sixers don’t win a title in the next two or three seasons, we could be looking at this deal in hindsight and considering this a massive overpay.
But at the moment, this is just the cost of doing business if you’re to be taken seriously as a contender in this league. This is a swing you have to make when you have a player like Embiid and a title window that’s shrinking by the season. This kind of deal is how you “win” free agency and vault your club to second in the DK Sportsbook odds to win the 2024-25 NBA Championship, behind only the defending champion Boston Celtics as of this writing at +800.
Andre Drummond and Eric Gordon Land With Philly, Maxey Extended
Philadelphia wasn’t done with just George, however. Far from it. One of the first deals of the free agency period reported by the major outlets was that Eric Gordon (who was with GM Daryl Morey in Houston years ago) signed with Philly on a one-year deal for the veteran minimum. That’s pretty good business for a team up against the cap. Then, in a move that likely signals the end of Paul Reed’s tenure with the club, Andre Drummond (who spent 49 games with Phlly in the 2021-22 season) signed a two-year, $10 million deal to back up Embiid. They also inked Maxey to a five-year, $204 million extension, locking in the all-star guard headed into his fifth season with the club through 2029. They also re-signed Kelly Oubre Jr. to a two-year, $16.3 million deal, with a player option on the second year. Even with this flurry of moves, we’ve still got a long way to go until the 76ers are done filling out this roster. They came into the NBA Draft last Wednesday with just two players (Embiid and Ricky Council IV) under contract. They’re off to a heck of a start to the summer, securing these five players along with draft picks Jared McCain and Adam Bona.
Clippers extend James Harden, sign Derrick Jones Jr. & Kevin Porter Jr.
Tough times in Clipper land. The club will make their move to Intuit Dome this season without Paul George in tow after he signed with the 76ers overnight. But the Clips haven’t stood by twiddling their thumbs. They reportedly signed James Harden to a two-year, $70 million contract on Sunday afternoon. Including Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, LA had eight players under contract.
They added two more later in the evening in Derrick Jones Jr and Kevin Porter Jr. The former comes over from Dallas after helping the Mavericks make their first trip to the NBA Finals in over a decade. Jones profiles as a starter for this team now, providing some defensive prowess on the wing in an attempt to mitigate the loss of George. For three-years and $30 million, I think it’s a deal that worked out well for both sides as the Clippers try to find a new direction while propping themselves up with the aging Leonard/Harden combo.
Signing Porter is certainly a direction. It’s a head-scratching one for me. The 24-year-old guard spent this past season in Greece after he was arrested on felony domestic assault charges last summer. He pled guilty in January to misdemeanor assault and harassment, a deal that kept him out of jail as long as he met the terms of the agreement. With his 26-week program coming to an end, the Clippers apparently felt okay to welcome him back into the NBA. After they also carried Joshua Primo on their roster last season, a former lottery pick who was waived by the Spurs after allegations of indecent exposure, this Porter signing ultimately shouldn’t be a surprise.
We see this in the NBA from time to time, and we only have to go back one offseason to see a similar discussion about the return of Miles Bridges. While I’ll let the readers make up their own minds as to how they feel about signings like this, one thing I can’t deny is the upside of Porter’s talent last we saw him in the league. While I don’t think he profiles as a starting NBA point guard long term, he averaged 19 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists per game in his age-22 season with Houston. From purely a basketball perspective, it’s a high-upside swing for a franchise whose roster is in flux, whether they want to admit it or not.
Mavericks sign Naji Marshall
About an hour before the Derrick Jones Jr. to the Clippers news hit our timelines, Dallas reportedly came to terms with former Pelicans wing Naji Marshall on a 3-year, $27 million deal. Marshall profiles very similarly with Jones on both sides of the ball. While he doesn’t possess the insane athleticism that left Jones with the nickname “airplane mode,” Marshall showed some improvement from three last season in New Orleans that would be very welcome in Dallas if it’s for real.
A career 31.3% shooter from three, Marshall shot 38.7% on 2.3 attempts per game last year. For a guy who averaged just 19 minutes per game across his 66 appearances, that’s pretty darn good. I’m skeptical that it will continue, but there’s little doubt Marshall reaped the benefits of sharing the floor more consistently with guys like Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Now teaming up with the duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, Marshall will likely be shooting more open shots than he has across his first four seasons in the league. I think Mavs fans should be feeling good about exchanging Jones for Marshall, especially considering they were able to add Quentin Grimes in exchange for getting rid of the Tim Hardaway Jr. contract.
Isaiah Hartenstein to OKC, Thunder extend Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins
The Thunder are the “runners-up” to Philly as we near the 24-hour mark of free agency. OKC isn’t in need of much, but two clear areas to improve on were size and shooting. The Thunder have done that quickly to begin July. First, they’ve pried Isaiah Hartenstein away from the Knicks with a 3-year, $87 million contract. Not bad for a guy who projects to be a backup. At 7-foot, 250 pounds, Hartenstein gives the Thunder some significant size and rebounding prowess. He only started 49 games for New York last season, mostly in relief of the oft-injured Mitchell Robinson, but still finished 20th in the league in rebounding with 8.3 per game and 18th in the league in blocks with 1.1 per game. Getting him in the door this offseason while the club still has at least two years on the rookie contracts of guys like Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace is great roster building.
In the same hour, Oklahoma City also completed contract extensions with Isaiah Joe (4 years, $48 million) and Aaron Wiggins (5 years, $47 million). With these deals, the Thunder lock down two of their important role players for the upcoming championship window. After finishing as the first overall seed in the Western Conference last year, OKC will look to build on its second-round exit. Both players shot over 41% from three last season and will be counted on to help space the floor while holding their own on the defensive end. Just another feather in the cap of GM Sam Presti, especially with Wiggins, whom the franchise drafted with the 55th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.
Tobias Harris to the Pistons
I tend to agree with the sentiments of FTN’s own Adam Strangis, who wrote in our FTN NBA Discord channel this morning, “How did Tobias get $25 million from anyone??” It’s a natural reaction for any hoops fan who saw the notification of a two-year, $52 million contract pop up on their device this morning.
While this move may be shocking on paper, I won’t be giving the Pistons too much guff after further evaluation. In my 2024 NBA Draft winners and losers article from last Friday, I had the Pistons squarely in the “losers” category, with questions about spacing and where the heck this team would find some. Even though Harris shot just 35.3% from deep last season, that was his lowest mark since the 2016-17 season. Averaging 17.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists last year, Harris has proved to be a durable option over the course of his career.
A durable veteran is exactly what this Detroit roster needs right now, and to be honest, they should bring in a couple others before the season starts. The core group of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart are all 23 years old or younger. They also added Ron Holland (18) and Bobi Klintman (21) to the mix in the draft before selecting Cam Spencer out of UConn with the 53rd pick, who at 24 years old, is now like an elder statesman on this roster.
So, am I going to kill the Pistons for adding Harris, even at $26 million a year? No, I am not. It’s a bridge signing, two years with no options, until they can sort things out with their cache of young assets. But am I excited about the signing? Also, a no. It’s fine business by a rebuilding team from top to bottom.
Derrick White extension
Just before going live with this free agency update, we got news out of Boston that the defending champs have locked up Derrick White on a 4-year, $125.9 million contract extension, a deal that reportedly includes a player option. White, who was acquired in 2022 at the trade deadline from San Antonio in exchange for a first round pick and a 2028 first round pick swap, has been a staple of the Boston starting group over the past two seasons, culminating in the franchise’s 18th title last month.
I have zero negative things to say about this deal from the basketball side of things. White, who turns 30 years old tomorrow, is still very much in his prime. He’s hit nearly 40% from three in each of the last two seasons and is still playing at an all-NBA level on defense. From a roster-build standpoint, this team is about to get to all-time levels of expensive. According to Bobby Marks, once the club signs Jayson Tatum to the expected supermax extension, the Celtics payroll will exceed $200 million. That would make the team the most expensive in league history, and likely a big reason why it was reported about 25 minutes after the extension that the Celtics majority ownership group is making the team available for sale.
Afternoon Update
Klay chooses Dallas, Batum reunites with Clippers, Melton changes coasts
About a half hour after this article went live, we got two other pieces of news that couldn’t wait. First, Klay Thompson has decided that his destination is the reigning Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks. After an 11-year stint with the Warriors club that drafted him 11th overall in 2011, Thompson will don another jersey for the first time in his career.
The future Hall-of-Famer was the subject of much discussion last year in the Bay Area, relegated to a bench role for various stretches of the season for the first time since his rookie season. Despite the perceived struggles, Thompson still averaged 17.9 points per game on 38.7% from three. Adding his offensive firepower to the Mavericks rotation feels like a great fit from a basketball perspective. This team is going to try to outscore everyone, and with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the way, it’s scary to think that Thompson is going to be, at best, the third option in this starting unit.
One interesting wrinkle to keep an eye on as we progress through the day and the rest of this week is that Thompson’s three-year, $50 million contract will require the Warriors and Mavericks to come to terms on a sign-and-trade. Chris Haynes reported that “a deal is not close” at this point. Maybe that’s because this is apparently a three-team deal. Jake Fischer tweeted minutes later that the “sign-and-trade framework that will ultimately send Klay Thompson to Dallas has a completed concept that would send Josh Green to Charlotte, but what goes back to the Warriors has not yet been finalized.” The fact that the contract was announced before the sign-and-trade is done adds another wrinkle to the always frantic NBA free agency period.
Next, we got word that the Clippers will bring Nic Batum, who was part of the trade for James Harden last fall, back to LA from Philadelphia. We knew prior to free agency opening that Batum wouldn’t return to the 76ers, but his destination ultimately remained a mystery. Now, Batum will ink a 2-year, $10.6 million contract with the Clips. It’s fairly clear that Lawrence Frank and his team see a 2-3 year window left for this iteration of the Clippers roster. I don’t personally think this team has enough to go through the gauntlet of the Western Conference and come out on top, and while Batum is still an NBA caliber player, his acquisition doesn’t move the needle for me on the Clippers’ hopes of contending.
Finally, while the Warriors sift through options to complete the Thompson sign-and-trade, they’ve added De’Anthony Melton to the mix on a 1-year, $12.8 million contract. I love this move for the Dubs. After struggling with injury through most of the spring, Melton (who turned 26 in May) will bring additional scoring prowess and spacing to the Warriors offense. Melton is also a pesky defender, standing at 6-foot-2 but using his 6-foot-8 wingspan to average at least 1.2 steals per game in each of his six seasons. While Golden State should still be considered a fringe playoff team while we wait on the return in the Thompson deal, they’re clearly trying to maximize the remaining years of Stephen Curry. They add talent here with Melton, and the one-year deal provides them with more flexibility ahead of the 2025 free agent class which is, at the moment, decidedly more exciting than the current one.
