NBA Showdown plays for Lakers-Nuggets Game 5

Correct me if you’ve heard this before, but the Denver Nuggets enter Saturday night’s game on the brink of elimination, down 3-1 to the Los Angeles Lakers. We’ve seen it twice already this season — the Nuggets are no stranger to this situation — so expecting a wire-to-wire game and heaps of fantasy production for the NBA Showdown slate seems appropriate.

With the showdown format being vastly different between FanDuel and DraftKings, as you get the opportunity to roster three players that get a score-boost on FanDuel, while DraftKings only gives a boost to your MVP spot.

This article will be organized based on FanDuel’s formatting/multipliers, but I will also include my player rankings for DraftKings at the end of the article. I will include who I expect to be the top raw producers, as well as the top point-per-dollar options that make for good Captain plays given the 1.5x salary multiplier on DraftKings in that said captain spot.

MVP (viable Captains on DraftKings as well):

LeBron James (FanDuel: $16,000, DraftKings: $12,200): While James hasn’t been the focal point of the offense this series, it’d be hard to tell by just looking at his game log. In the series, he’s averaged 24.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 8.8 assists and 1.0 block in just under 36 minutes per game. He holds a 28.2% usage rate (less than 1% lower than Anthony Davis) and holds a 47.3% assist rate and 33.3% rebounding rate, giving him the most well-rounded upside on the slate.

Anthony Davis ($15,500, $11,800): Davis very well may be the most popular MVP option on the slate, as he’s topped 30 raw points in three of the four games in the series. His peripheral numbers have been incredibly disappointing, as Nikola Jokic has dominated him on the glass and has helped him Davis to seven total rebounds over the last two games. Nonetheless, it’s impossible to write him off on a showdown slate. He makes for a strong MVP choice in cash games, but there’s merit to fading his ownership in GPPs and going with a James/Jokic pairing.

Nikola Jokic ($15,000, $11,600): Aside from his 60.7-FanDuel-point outburst in Game 2, Jokic has been held in check (by his standards) for the most part this series. In the other three games of the series, he’s failed to top 43 FanDuel points and hasn’t seen 40 minutes once. Because of the game environment and it being an elimination game, we should expect 38-40 minutes as we’ve seen in the other series and could see the offense funnel through him a bit more. He provides a nice discount ($500-$1,000) off the top two options on FanDuel and still carries one of the highest ceilings in basketball.

Star

Fitting two of the three above players in your lineups should be a priority, with one in the MVP and another in the Star spot.

Jamal Murray ($13,500, $10,000): Perhaps the top dollar-for-dollar option on the slate, Murray provides a range of outcomes that rivals the top three options but for a severe discount. He’s topped 45 FanDuel points in three consecutive games and carries a 26.6% usage rate on the series, good for second-highest on the team behind Jokic.

Pro

Similar to the above note, all of the above players are viable in the Pro slot if you are not using them in the MVP or Star slot, given the fact that their upside is far higher than any other option on the slate.

Rajon Rondo ($10,000, $8,000): Outside of the top four, there really isn’t a heap of upside, so jamming in three of those four will be a priority. If looking elsewhere, however, Rondo presents peripheral upside that nobody below him does. He’s topped seven assists in each game this series and has five-steal upside, it’s just a matter of playing time. He saw 29 minutes in Game 3 en route to 28.4 FanDuel points, something he could very-well replicate on Saturday. He leads the Lakers with a 55.9% assist rate and if the stars align for a ceiling peripheral game, he could be a slate-breaker.

UTIL

(In order of preference)

Jerami Grant ($11,000, $6,600): He makes for a much stronger play on DraftKings than FanDuel when factoring in price, but Grant has now averaged 37.5 minutes over his last two games en route to 21.5 points per game. That offensive production is likely not sustainable, but he clearly provides a ceiling that not many other role players in this game do.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($8,500, $5,400)

Michael Porter Jr. ($9,500, $7,200): Once again, the minutes remain the only thing between Porter and explosion. Being a defensive liability, he’s been limited to under 25 minutes in all but one game this series. He still carries enough offensive upside to warrant consideration, but his price makes it hard to feel confident in locking him in if only running one lineup.

Dwight Howard ($8,000, $4,200): After all of the talk about expanding Howard’s role, it finally happened on Thursday, as he saw 22 minutes en route to a 12-point, 11-rebound double-double. It’s far from a lock that he sees this much time again, but the ceiling is sky-high for his price.

Monte Morris ($8,000, $3,800)

Danny Green ($9,000, $4,600): Given his price discrepancy, he’s a much stronger play on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel.

Alex Caruso ($7,000, $3,600)

Paul Millsap ($8,500, $6,000)

Kyle Kuzma ($8,000, $5,000)

Gary Harris ($8,500, $5,600)

DraftKings rankings

Overall rankings

Captain rankings (studs)

Price plays a massive factor here. Obviously, Anthony Davis and LeBron James provide higher raw floor/ceiling combinations than Jamal Murray, but the discount you get given the salary multiplier gives you flexibility in your utility spots.

Captain rankings (value)

If interested in jamming in as many studs as possible, the best strategy would be to punt the captain spot. It carries more risk, but if you get a decent game out of them, you’ll be jumping the field.

Dwight Howard (not for the faint of heart)
Jerami Grant
Rajon Rondo
Michael Porter Jr.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope