Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
In what could very well be the last NBA DFS slate of the 2019-20 season, Friday’s showdown slate presents us with the first elimination game of the NBA Finals. The Heat are slated to have Bam Adebayo back in the lineup for the second consecutive game, while Goran Dragic remains doubtful. This was a big blow to their offensive output over the last two games and it looks like Vegas thinks that we’ll see much of the same on Friday, as the Lakers come in as 7-point favorites according to DraftKings SportsBook.
The showdown format is vastly different between FanDuel and DraftKings, as you get the opportunity to roster three players that get a score-boost on FanDuel, while DraftKings only gives a boost to your MVP spot.
This article will be organized based on FanDuel’s formatting/multipliers, but I will also include my player rankings for DraftKings at the end. I will include who I expect to be the top raw producers, as well as the top point-per-dollar options that make for good Captain plays given the 1.5x salary multiplier on DraftKings in that said captain spot.
Injury designations: Goran Dragic (DOUBTFUL)
MVP (viable Captains on DraftKings as well)
LeBron James (FanDuel: $15,500, $12,400): James is one win away from his fourth ring in his career and with the GOAT narrative looming over him, there could be added fuel to the fire Friday. The offense continues to run through Anthony Davis, but James has been the primary facilitator and a walking triple-double threat. He still leads the team in usage rate (29.1%) this series and that shouldn’t change on Friday.
Anthony Davis ($14,500, $11,800): Davis’ floor is a bit lower than James’, but his 24% usage rate, 24.8% rebounding rate and 46.7% block rate give him arguably the most upside in the game. The return of Adebayo helpEd Davis last game, as he had to play a full 41 minutes to counter his size. This workload can be expected to be replicated tonight as the Lakers try and put the series away, making him one of the most popular MVP choices on the slate.
Jimmy Butler ($15,000, $10,800): Butler is the perfect way to differentiate your FanDuel lineups and the easiest stud to slot into the Captain on DraftKings, making him my overall favorite play in the game. He’s topped 50 FanDuel points in three consecutive games with one of those games going for 79.7. He hasn’t seen less than 43 minutes in a game over that span while posting a 28.7% usage rate, 50.7% assist rate and 27.9% rebounding rate.
Star
Fitting two of the three above players in your lineups should be a priority, with one in the MVP and another in the Star spot.
Bam Adebayo ($13,000, $9,800): While he rounded into form a bit last game, Adebayo still saw 33 minutes in his return to the court and should see even more in an elimination game Friday. He’ll have his hands full once again with Anthony Davis, but he has posted a 20.6% usage rate in the playoffs. His price is reasonable enough to fit alongside two of the above players, making him a safe bet for his salary.
Pro
Similar to the above note, all of the above players are viable in the Pro slot if you are not using them in the MVP or Star slot, given the fact that their upside is far higher than any other option on the slate.
Tyler Herro ($11,000, $9,000): Herro’s age has shown a bit over the last few games, as he’s taken some rather erratic shots and had a number of defensive lapses, but none of that matters when looking at fantasy production. He has a 25.9% usage rate in the finals so far and has seen a 2% bump with Dragic off the court over the last two games. His minutes are secure in the 36-42 range, making him an excellent point-per-dollar option, especially on FanDuel.
UTIL
(In order of preference)
Jae Crowder ($9,000, $7,400): Crowder’s price is fair for his production, as he’s been one of the most reliable assets throughout the playoffs. He won’t provide a super high ceiling, but he’s a surefire bet for over 20 fantasy points and a heap of minutes.
Duncan Robinson ($9,500, $7,000): Robinson should continue to see added volume with Dragic out, as he’s scored 30 total points over the last two games while also contributing more in peripheral categories. His minutes have been up over 30 in those games, heightening his floor as well.
Rajon Rondo ($9,500, $6,200)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($9,000, $5,600)
Kendrick Nunn ($9,000, $4,000): Nunn’s failed to step up how fantasy players thought he would sans-Dragic, but he’s still an elite per-minute producer. If this game somehow gets out of hand, he’ll be one to get blowout run. Even if it doesn’t, he should roughly 20-25 minutes, making him a relatively safer bet on DraftKings.
Danny Green ($9,000, $4,400)
Markieff Morris ($8,000, $3,600)
Kyle Kuzma ($8,000, $4,800)
Kelly Olynyk ($11,500, $3,000): Olynyk’s price on FanDuel makes him the easiest fade on the entire slate with Adebayo back. He’s back down to $3,000 on DraftKIngs, but even then, with Adebayo absorbing 35-40 minutes, there isn’t a ton of room for Olynyk to produce here.
Alex Caruso ($7,500, $3,400)
Andre Iguodala ($8,500, $2,400)
Dwight Howard ($8,000, $3,200)
DraftKings rankings
Overall rankings
Captain rankings (studs)
Captain rankings (value)
If interested in jamming in as many studs as possible, the best strategy would be to punt the captain spot. It carries more risk, but if you get a decent game out of them, you’ll be jumping the field. On Friday’s slate in particular, the value is especially volatile. Because of this, paying up a bit at the captain spot seems like the optimal strategy.
