Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Throughout the course of the 2021-2022 NBA season, the FTN team has been consistently looking for value in the same-game parlay market. In order to maximize the payout possibilities for a same game parlay or any bet for that matter, it is important to shop around to find the best available lines.
What Are Same Game Parlays and Why Bet Them?
A same-game parlay is a concept as simple as its name: It is a parlay that includes multiple wagers tied to the same event. For example, when a sportsbook release spreads, totals and moneyline odds for a game, the work does not stop on their end. Now, almost every sportsbook in almost every major US betting market offers prop bets in the form of game props or player props. A game prop is a prop on the actual game, such as the total number of three points field goals made by both teams. A player prop is a prop bet on a specific player’s stats, like O/U points or assists for LeBron James during a game.
Same-game parlays have recently taken the betting markets by storm — this time last year not many books offered them, but now they are readily available at almost every sportsbook. Same-game parlays are eerily similar to DFS in the sense that while concocting the same-game parlay, a bettor can focus solely on how they anticipate a player to fair in a particular matchup and not the entire team. In these cases, it is possible to get down action that consists of strictly five different player props for a singular matchup. Users at certain sportsbooks also have the option to parlay custom bets on the same game. For example, a bettor can parlay multiple alternate props lines on the same game, and not just the standard issued prop bets.
While same-game parlays are all correlated since they are on the same event,it is important to note that same-game parlays are not necessarily easier to beat than any traditional parlay. When oddsmakers are creating the betting lines, they attempt to make the most efficient lines possible so that sharp bettors do not frequently pick off their weak lines. This occurs for all lines including prop bets. While prop lines are generally more inefficient than standard against the spread lines, it’s not like they are a cakewalk to beat either. Same-game parlays become more difficult to beat, because a bettor is looking to find and combine multiple market inefficiencies on the same game. Trust me, folks, that is not a simple task. Nonetheless, we will continue to dive into the NBA market to find some value in the same game parlay market.
NBA Same Game Parlay Picks Today
Here is our same-game parlay pick, courtesy of Joe Metz, for Thursday, March 10th
James Harden will dominate his old team
- Sixers ML
- Tyrese Maxey (2+ made threes)
- Joel Embiid to record 10+ rebounds
- Kevin Durant to record 25+ points
- James Harden to record 10+ assists
- James Harden to record 6+ rebounds
+542, FanDuel Sportsbook
The Nets versus Sixers game is one of the most anticipated games of the season, as Ben Simmons makes his dreaded return to Philadelphia (albeit on the bench) and James Harden will get to square off with his former team. In what should be a battle of two Eastern Conference juggernauts, a six-leg parlay that takes a rather conservative approach is my favorite way to approach it.
Since the trade to Sixers, James Harden has remained one of the most elite playmakers in the NBA, leading the entire league in potential assists per game (21.8) and ranking second in assists per game (12.4). I plan to lean on this trend and take his 10+ assists while adding the 6+ rebounds for a bit of security, a number he’s topped in four of his first five games with the team.
The primary beneficiary of Harden’s playmaking and floor-spacing has been Tyrese Maxey, who’s not only shooting over 50% from the field since the trade but also over 50% from three. With so many more open looks, especially against a suspect defense, his over 1.5 threes is one of my favorite standalone bets on the slate. Because of this, I’m adding 2+ threes to the parlay.
To cap off my Philly side of the parlay, I’m grabbing Joel Embiid 10+ rebounds. This is well under his season average and a matchup with Andre Drummond will be more than enough to keep him at the rim against an otherwise undersized frontcourt.
Running it back with Kevin Durant‘s alternate points line (25+) in what I expect to be a bounceback effort in a back-and-forth game is my favorite way to get my Nets exposure in a game where I am all over their opponent.
While this doesn’t have the sexy-long odds of other SGPs, this reasonable 6-leg parlay pays over 5-1. Let’s ride.
