Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets.
The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks.
We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.
Malcolm Brogdon OVER 25.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
(-127, BetRivers, Projection: 32.91)
Malcolm Brogdon has battled injury all year long, and while he sat our last game, he played 30 minutes in his two games prior. I am assuming he missed the last game as a precaution on the second half of a back-to-back. If he is going to play 30 minutes again here, I really like this line, but I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised to see his minutes climb a bit as he works his way back. He gets a great matchup against the 24th ranked Orlando team who also play at the 12th-fastest pace in the NBA, a pace-up spot for the Pacers who are 22nd.
Brandon Ingram OVER 26.5 Points+Assists
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 30.55)
The star of the Pelicans post-trade deadline has actually been CJ McCollum, but Brandon Ingram has had his fair share of production as well, including a massive increase in assist rate as of late. Ingram now has 7+ assists in four of his last five games. Very strong matchup as well for Ingram as the Kings are 29th in DEF and eighth in pace.
Tyler Herro OVER 27.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 31.04)
We know the scoring potential Tyler Herro has each night, but he has shown upside in the assists and rebound departments lately as well, combing for 9 or more in two of his last three games. With Kyle Lowry off the floor, Herro is averaging nearly 7.5 rebounds per game and just shy of 4 assists per game, alongside 24.67 points.
