NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (12/22)


Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion.

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

Let’s get into the picks.



Armoni Brooks OVER 10.5 Points

(+100, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 16.08)

The Rockets are still without a couple of their key scorers despite Christian Wood returning, as Kevin Porter and Jalen Green are out. Armoni Brooks played 32 minutes and scored 15 points last game, amd the model has him for 28 minutes and 16 points Wednesday. 

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 17.5 Points

(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 22.39)

Tyrese Haliburton continues to impress with De’Aaron Fox out. His usage rate has gone up nearly 10%, from 17% to 25%, with Fox sidelined. Haliburton has scored at least 21 in three straight games with Fox out, and the model has him for 22-plus. 

Chimezie Metu OVER 6.5 Rebounds

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 9.9)

When Chimezie Metu starts, the minutes have been very consistent and his production has been solid in turn. The model has him for just under 10 boards, and while he had just 6 in each of the last two games, he had 11 three games ago, so the upside is very clearly here. 

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