NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (12/15)


What is going on everyone, throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. I plan to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks! 

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here. 

Grayson Allen o12.5 Points

(-116, FanDuel, Projection: 18.14)

Allen will benefit by not only volume but by minutes as well as Giannis is out for tonight’s game. Allen has shown the ability to perform well when given the consistent minutes for the Bucks this year and those minutes should be a bit more stable tonight for him, as well as the fact he is likely to pick up some extra usage that Giannis is vacating. 

Tyrese Maxey u16.5 Points

(-120, DraftKings, Projection: 11.43)

16.5 is a big number for Maxey, which might suggest that Vegas thinks Joel Embiid could sit, but considering he took place in shootaround I have him projected to play, which would hurt the overall usage and volume for Maxey. This season, Maxey is averaging just 12 points per 36 minutes with Embiid on the floor. 

Guillermo Hernangomez o15.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

(-110, Caesars, Projection: 19.5 PRA)

Hernangomez has been getting steady 14-18 minutes recently and that has led to some solid showings, he is averaging nearly 8.5 PPG as well as 7 rebounds and 1.5 assists. He gets a great matchup against the Thunder here as well.

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