NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (12/1)

What is going on everyone, throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on FTNBets.com to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets.

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my models numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks!

Garrison Mathews o11.5 Points

(-120, DraftKings, Projection: 14.8)

Mathews has entered the starting lineup with Jalen Green sidelined and has now taken double-digit FGs in back-to-back games. He has played 28+ minutes in three straight and has scored 12+.  

Malcolm Brogdon o5.5 Assists

(+110 DraftKings, Projection: 7.31)

Brogdon is averaging nearly 6 assists on the season, and this should be a fairly good spot against the Hawks with the second highest implied Vegas total on the board. Brogdon is projected for north of 7 assists in my model tonight.

Al Horford o6.5 Rebounds

(-115, DraftKings, Projection: 8.59)

Horford has had some struggles getting big minutes recently, as he has yet to crack 30 in the last 4 games, but in a matchup against Joel Embiid he should be asked for some more time on the floor. I only have him for 28 minutes tonight, but I think he could get some more. He has had two games of 11 rebounds in his last four games, where his minutes have been down. So even in limited time he has huge rebounding upside.