NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (11/9)

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion.

Trae Young u25.5 Points 

(-110, DraftKings, Projection: 18.67 points)

This is now the third time we have hit the under on Trae Young, and this is the lowest number the model has projected for Young’s points all year. The matchup is brutal, as the Jazz are sixth in defensive efficiency and bottom-three in pace in the NBA this season. Young can definitely thrive in the face of adversity, but the model likes the under here. 

Terance Mann o4.5 Rebounds

(-149, Caesars, Projection: 6.52 Rebounds)

Terrance Mann has been a solid producer on several fronts this year thanks to his steady supply of minutes in this Clippers rotation. This is a huge pace-up spot for Los Angeles, as the Trailblazers top-five in pace this year, which should provide more opportunities for Mann on the glass. 

Joe Ingles o8.5 Points

(+105, DraftKings, Projection: 13.01 points)

Let’s end the night with a plus-money bet here. Joe Ingles has gotten off to a slow start this season, but this matchup against a Hawks team that is top-seven in pace and bottom-three in DEF should serve as a get-right spot. Even with his struggles, Ingles is averaging 8.5 PPG this season.