Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets.
The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion.
Coming off a nice 3-0 night, so looking to roll with the momentum here. Let’s get into the picks.
Trae Young Under 24.5 Points
(-105, BetMGM; projection: 19.17)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? The Trae Young under hit Wednesday night, and he is now on a back-to-back in a difficult matchup. The model had him for 22 points last night and he scored 21, the model has him for 19 tonight so the under is once again the play here.
Avery Bradley Under 1.5 Assists
(+110, DraftKings Sportsbook; projection: 0.48)
Avery Bradley is coming off a two-assist game as he played 30 minutes, however he only has one other assist on the entire year. My model has him at 0.48 assists Thursday, so this number being plus money is icing on the cake.
Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook; projection: 17.1)
Mikal Bridges is averaging north of 16 PPG so far this season and continues to play massive minutes. Deandre Ayton is questionable, so that is another potential bump to his projected production. My model has him at 17.1 points.
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Al Horford Over 8.5 Rebounds
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook; projection: 11.5)
Another bet at plus money that the model is on heavily, Al Horford is averaging over 10 rebounds a game so far this season and has yet to have less than 10 boards in any game thus far. The model has him at north of 11 so the margin, plus the line being set at +100 is too good to pass up.
Tyler Herro Over 17.5 Points
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook; projection: 23.4)
Tyler Herro has been on another level this year. He has been aggressive, and that has led to him posting a usage rate of 27% or higher in all but one game so far this season. He is averaging 22 PPG this season, and my model has him for over 23 points.
