NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (11/3)


What is going on everyone, throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. I plan to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets.  

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks! 

Last night was brutal, we put up a goose egg, so naturally, I put my nose down a bit more today to try and find three winners. 

Trae Young u25.5 Points

Projection: 22.8 points

The Hawks are not the same run and gun team they were last year and Trae Young has taken on a huge role as a facilitator for this team, and that has resulted in lower-scoring outputs. This should be a solid matchup against the Nets, but they have been top 10 in defensive efficiency this year. 

Jalen Brunson o13.5 points

Projection: 15.4 points

Brunson has been very solid this year and even got the start last night when Kristaps Porzingis was out. Porzingis is questionable tonight, but even if he does play the model likes the over for Brunson on 13.5. 

Myles Turner o10.5 points

Projection: 11.5 points

The projection on Turner doesn’t leave us with a huge margin, but I think the model may be a bit low on Turner based on his production last year. This season he is averaging north of 13 PPG, and with his uptick in scoring production the projection of nearly 11.5 may be a bit low. 

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