NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (11/24)

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion.

I’m going to do something a little different Wednesday — for a couple of these prop plays, there are some longshot daily special bets that I hit, so make sure to check those out! For the longshots I am going to bet half a unit, rather than the standard full unit. 

Let’s get into the picks.

Rudy Gobert OVER 913.5 Rebounds

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 18.25)

Rudy Gobert is averaging nearly 15 rebounds a game, and the Thunder allow the second-most rebounds to opposing big men in the NBA. The only concern I really have is the potential blowout with this game being a 14-point spread, but Gobert has at least 20-rebound upside very night so he could very easily get this done in limited time as well, especially with the matchup being a good one. 

I’m also taking a stab at Gobert as the daily rebound leader on DraftKings at +340. 

Cory Joseph OVER 16.5 PRA

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 21.58 PRA)

The model has Cory Joseph for 13 points alone, largely thanks to how many minutes I expect him to play. Joseph has played 34 and 38 minutes in the last two games as he has been starting for the injured Killian Hayes. Joseph is not an elite scorer by any means, but my model has him for over five assists and just under three rebounds. He had 16 assists total in his last two games to go along with 7 rebounds and 14 points. 

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Harrison Barnes OVER 16.5 Points

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 22.54 points)

Harrison Barnes has a 22% usage rate on the year, which is second highest on the Kings, who have a great matchup against a Blazers team that is bottom five in defense this year. Barnes is averaging 19.3 points on the year, so that alone paired with the strong matchup makes this line of 16.5 too low.