Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets.
The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion.
I’m going to do something a little different Wednesday — for a couple of these prop plays, there are some longshot daily special bets that I hit, so make sure to check those out! For the longshots I am going to bet half a unit, rather than the standard full unit.
Let’s get into the picks.
Richaun Holmes OVER 9.5 Rebounds
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook; Projection: 14.86)
Richaun Holmes is averaging nearly 11 rebounds per game, and with both of these teams playing at a pace that is top five in the league, there should be plenty of possessions to go around. Minutes are the only issue with Holmes, but they should try to get as many minutes as possible out of him with Karl-Anthony Towns likely being his defensive assignment.
My longshot bet here is Richaun Holmes as the daily rebounds leader, I found this on DraftKings at +1800; he has the 10th-best odds according to DraftKings, but my model has his 14.86 as the highest projection on the board.
Anthony Edwards OVER 33.5 PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists)
(-120, BetMGM; Projection: 41.85 PRA)
My model has Anthony Edwards for 30 points alone. He is in the same game as Richaun Holmes as mentioned above, so I am expecting lots of volume here for these two teams, which should lead to massive production.
The longshot bet here is Anthony Edwards as the daily scoring leader on FanDuel at +1300. Edwards is projected for 30 points for me, which leads the way Wednesday. Meanwhile, DK has him with the fifth-best odds to lead the night in points scored.
(Sign up for FTN Bets today for $49.99 a month!)
Myles Turner OVER 12.5 Points
(-116, FanDuel Sportsbook; Projection: 17.7 points)
This is now the third time we have bet Myles Turner’s over on points this season, and we are 2-for-2 so far so hopefully the trend continues. But I am not sure why his line continues to be so low. He is averaging 14 points per game this season, his usage is nearly 2.5% higher than it was last year and has scored 13-plus points in three of his last four games.
