Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
What is going on everyone? Throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on FTNBets.com to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets.
The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks!
We went 3-for-3 in the article last night and 7-for-8 on props in the bet tracker, so I’m looking to ride a hot streak here!
Svi Mykhailiuk o7.5 Points
(-125, DraftKings, Projection: 13.12 points)
Svi Mykhailiuk is averaging over 8 points a game and 15 points per 36 minutes with Pascal Siakam off the floor. Siakam is out tonight, so there should be some extra usage to go around for Mykhailiuk to pick up some extra shots.
Scottie Barnes o24.5 PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists)
(-115, DraftKings, Projection: 33.3 PRA)
Scottie Barnes has been filling several stat categories in his short career, and with Pascal Siakam out, he should go back to getting monstrous minutes. With Siakam off the floor this year, Barnes’ per 36 minutes averages are; 17 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3 assists.
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Danny Green u1.5 Assists
(+110, DraftKings, Projection: .75 assists)
Danny Green has had back-to-back games with 2+ assists and has hit this number in three of his last four. However, with Tobias Harris returning to the lineup, his role should decrease and revert to what we saw early in the season when he had just one TOTAL assist through the first five games.
P.J. Tucker o4.5 Rebounds
(-160, DraftKings, Projection: 7.46 Rebounds)
P.J. Tucker played 38 minutes (in an OT game) last night against the Lakers following the Jimmy Butler injury. Butler is out once again, so we should see more minutes and rebounding opportunities for Tucker.
