NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (10/27)

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion.

Let’s get into the picks.

Cole Anthony UNDER 16.5 points

Projection: 13.06 points

This is a pretty big line for Cole Anthony, who has only scored more than 12 points once this year. Granted, he did go for 29 that game, but I think that big game is part of the reason why the line is so large. Anthony has seen a steady volume of shot attempts per game, but even on 12 per game last year he averaged just 13 PPG. 

Bam Adebayo OVER 3.5 assists

Projection: 6.37 assists 

Bam Adebayo’s over on assists was in this article last time I wrote it as well, and while it lost I am not willing to write off Adebayo and his passing abilities. His assists numbers are way down this year, but in the previous two seasons he averaged north of 5 assists per game. Sure, the Heat added Kyle Lowry, but they also lost Goran Dragic, so I don’t think there was some huge change here that will dramatically cut his facilitation involvement down. Bam still has a 26% usage rate this season, so I am just waiting on the assists to come. 

Kyle Kuzma OVER 1.5 three-pointers made

Projection: 2.59 3PM

Kyle Kuzma has really settled into a significant offensive role in Washington. He is averaging 7.3 attempts from three per game so far this season and has a 22% usage rate. Kuzma is a career 34% shooter from deep and while that is fairly average, the sheer volume he has had so far makes this a worthwhile bet.