NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (1/5)

What is going on everyone? Throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on FTNBets.com to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks! 

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

Isaiah Roby o6.5 Points

(+103, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 10.53)

Isaiah Roby has played 18+ minutes in four straight and has 8+ points in each of those. The Thunder are getting some guys back from the protocols who could mix up the rotation, but Lu Dort will miss this game, and I still have Roby for about 16 minutes. My model has him for over 10 points.

(Sign up for our free betting newsletter here!)

Gary Payton o11.5 Points

(-110, DraftKings, Projection: 17.38)

Gary Payton has now scored 11+ points in seven straight games, and 12 or more in six of those seven. The minutes continue to be there, as Payton has been cracking the starting lineup with Jordan Poole being pushed to the bench. And with Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala out, those minutes should continue to be there for the highly efficient Payton.

Josh Giddey o6.5 Rebounds

(-105, FanDuel, Projection: 8.13)

Josh Giddey now has back-to-back games with 10+ rebounds and is averaging over 7 on the year. This is a fairly low line considering his season average and recent production. This is also a pace-up spot for the Thunder, who face a top-10 pace team in the Timberwolves.