NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (1/26)

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks.

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

Pascal Siakam OVER 23.5 Points

(-110, Caesars, Projection: 32.84)

Pascal Siakam gets a matchup against the Bulls, but it sounds like there is a chance that Fred VanVleet and/or Scottie Barnes sit once again. Last night in that same situation Siakam played 40 minutes and had a 26% usage rate. He scored 24 points while shooting 9-for-16, that felt like a bit of a floor game in that situation. 

Richaun Holmes OVER 18.5 Points+Rebound+Assists

(-115, BetMGM, Projection: 25.01)

Richaun Holmes played just 23 minutes last night thanks to a blowout, but he still produced 9 points and 9 rebounds. I’m projecting him for 27 minutes, so with the expectation of more minutes I’m counting on some more production, especially if De’Aaron Fox and Chimezie Metu are out again. 

Donte DiVincenzo OVER 3.5 Rebounds

(-140, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 6.01)

Donte DiVincenzo has always been a pretty reliable rebounder, as he averages 4.8 RPG so far over the course of his career. His minutes have gotten back up a bit, as he has played at least 22 in consecutive games, and with Grayson Allen and Wes Matthews out, he should have a solid role in this rotation for this game.