NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (1/19)

What is going on everyone? Throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on FTNBets.com to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks! 

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

DeMar DeRozan o26.5 points

(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 33.4.53)

DeMar DeRozan takes on the Cavs with no Lonzo Ball or Zach LaVine. In those scenarios, he has nearly a 39% usage rate. The matchup isn’t great, as Cleveland plays slow and is fairly strong on the defensive end. But the overall volume is the most important part for this bet, as well as his overall scoring projection. 

Jimmy Butler o20.5 points

(-120, BetRivers, Projection: 28.16)

BetRivers has a laughable line of just 20.5, but I also like this line up to 22.5 or even 23.5 depending on where you look. No Tyler Herro or Kyle Lowry means more usage for Jimmy Butler in a very strong matchup. I also like Butler to record a triple-double at +600 on FanDuel. 

Cade Cunningham o4.5 rebounds

(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 6.11)

Cade Cunningham is averaging 5.5 RPG on the season and should be in a very fast-paced matchup against the Kings, who are top 10 in pace this season. The pace-up spot should lead to more possessions and rebounding opportunities for Cunningham.