Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After a thrilling seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals ended with a Boston massacre, the NBA finals are not set. The Denver Nuggets will Host the Miami Heat in a best-of-seven to decide the NBA Championship. These two teams played twice during the regular season, with the Nuggets winning both of those games.
Nikola Jokic was a problem for the Miami Heat. He averaged a triple-double in those two games, with 23 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists per game. Jokic has been a problem for pretty much everyone the Nuggets played this season, and the Heat will need to figure out how to limit the versatile big man if they are going to make some noise in this series. Jimmy Butler was the guy who led the Heat on the opposite side. Butler had 17 points, 6 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 steals in one matchup and 27 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists and a steal in the other. Bam Adebayo and Max Strus also played well in those matchups against the Nuggets. Tyler Herro had a big game against them too, but I am not confident we will see him in this series, despite some rumors floating around.
The Nuggets have been hyper efficient on offense in the playoffs. They are averaging over 119 points per 100 possessions, easily the top mark this year. In fact, it’s the top mark in the last six years, which goes to show how well they have played on that end of the floor. Miami was a very good defensive team throughout the season and ranked sixth in the playoffs for defensive efficiency. They have played some solid offenses to get here, but none that are as efficient as the Nuggets have been. Denver has the lowest turnover percentage and highest assist to turnover ratio of any team in the playoffs this year. In fact, the assist-to-turnover ratio is one of the best we have seen in this century. It is second only to themselves a few years back.
The Nuggets are coming off a sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference final. They will be rested for this series. The Heat blew a 3-0 lead and needed to win a Game 7 on the road to punch their ticket. They wheel right back to take on a superior team on the road for Game 1, which is not a positive for them. The Nuggets are a big favorite in Game 1 at -8.5 points and are a major favorite to win this series. Miami has been slaying higher seeded teams throughout the playoffs, but I am not confident that continues with no rest, injuries to key pieces, and the best opponent they have faced so far. Here are a couple series-long best bets I am looking to play for the NBA Finals.
NBA Finals Best Bets
Nikola Jokic to Average a Triple-Double
Normally you can get an NBA player at plus money on any given night to record a triple-double. That is not the case with Nikola Jokic. Jokic is a lock for double-doubles and routinely records triple-doubles. He averaged a triple-double in two regular-season games against the Heat. He has put up some monster stat lines with 20-plus points, 12-plus rebounds and double-digit assists. I expect him to continue to do that same kind of work in the finals. He may come up a few assists short in one game or miss by a rebound or two in another, but overall the massive stat lines should continue to be there for him. If you want something a little spicier, you can get 18-1 odds on Jokic to record a triple-double in every game. While I think it could happen, it is obviously not likely. Instead I prefer to play the blended average of his stats here. While he may miss by a couple rebounds or assists here or there, he is also likely to have games where he cruises past the 10-rebound or 10-assist mark and that should be more than enough to pull those averages up over the mark.
NBA Finals Exact Order
FanDuel has an interesting bet on the exact order of games won in the NBA Finals. They have the Nuggets at +500 for a sweep, but I like the Heat to win at least one of the two games they play at home. I think the Nuggets can jump out to an early 2-0 lead by winning both games in Denver. If Miami is going to extend the series to at least five games, they have to win one of the two in Miami if the Nuggets hold serve at home. You can get +650 odds on the Heat to lose the series 4-1 but win in either Game 3 or Game 4. I prefer to think of Miami as a scrappy team that will fight with their backs to the wall, which is why I prefer to play them to win Game 4. Denver is the far superior team here and should be able to grab at least one in Miami. If they go up 3-0, I could see a letdown in Game 4 that sends the series back to Denver with a chance to close it out in front of the home fans. +650 seems like a nice payout considering you are hard pressed to find the Nuggets at under -250 to win the series on most books. You cannot even get them at plus money to win a series 4-1, so trying to nail the exact order seems to be the best possible way to capture some value.
Nikola Jokic to Win Finals MVP
Currently DraftKings has this listed at -190. That is absurdly low. This is Jokic’s award to lose. He should have won the regular season MVP as well, but I guess they wanted to give one to Joel Embiid this year. Jokic deserved another MVP with his performance and has been playing like a man with a chip on his shoulder in the playoffs. Jokic should average at or near a triple-double in this series and do it with 20+ points per game. He is a force on the boards, a force scoring or distributing the basketball, and should lead the team in most statistical categories every game. Jamal Murray has played great and would be the only other guy with a chance to take home the award here. Anything under -250 is a steal with Jokic. Anything under -200, you should be playing heavily as he is probably more like a 70% favorite to win it.
