Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA Finals continues on Sunday night with a pivotal Game 2 in Denver at Ball Arena. The Nuggets dominated Miami in Game 1, earning a comfortable 104-93 victory. Nikola Jokic posted a triple-double (27 points, 10 rebounds, 14 assists), with Jamal Murray adding 26 points and 10 assists. Miami sharpshooter Max Strus had his worst game of the playoffs, failing to score a point white shooting 0 of 10 from the field.
Will Miami enjoy some positive shooting regression and even the series before Game 3 in Miami? Will Denver move to 10-0 at home in the playoffs and earn a strong 2-0 lead in the quest for their first NBA Championship? Our FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the playoffs, so make sure to check out our biggest edges in tonight’s critical Game 2.
NBA Best Bets
Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists
(-115, DraftKings)
The key to Game 2 props is understanding the adjustments the losing team will make. Butler stated repeatedly that Miami needs to attack the basket more, earning more than the two free throws attempts in Game 1. I also expect better shooting from Max Strus and Caleb Martin. Look for Butler to facilitate the offense again, setting up his teammates for open shots. He has seven or more rebounds in six of the last seven playoff games, and has beaten this prop in three of the last four meetings with Denver. It’s a tough mark since he only had 14 in Game 1, but this will be a lower-scoring game with more rebound opportunities.
Denver Nuggets
Jamal Murray Under 26.5 Points
(-118, Caesars)
It will be difficult to contain Nikola Jokic, as Miami lacks depth in their frontcourt behind Bam Adebayo. However, they have a plethora of guards that should be able to slow Denver’s second-leading scorer. Murray did not beat this number in Game 1 despite starting the game on fire. My guess is that Erik Spoelstra limits both Murray and Aaron Gordon, trying to make Jokic post a monster scoring performance to win. In Game 4 against Phoenix, Jokic had 53 points, but Denver lost 129-124. The Heat have several ways to contain Murray, and I think he falls short of this number in Game 2.
Denver Nuggets
Aaron Gordon Under 13.5 Points
(-115, Caesars)
Aaron Gordon started Game 1 on absolute fire, scoring 12 points in the first eight minutes. I certainly don’t expect that again from a player who averaged just 12.1 PPG in Denver’s last ten playoff matchups. His scoring against Miami in their last four meetings? 10, 20, 11, and 16 points. The Heat will adjust defensively, and I’ll fade Gordon against a number he’s failed to beat in five of his last seven home games.
