NBA Postseason Best Bets of the Day (5/29)

There is nothing better than a Game 7. Especially with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. 

The Celtics earned a thrilling 104-103 buzzer-beating victory over Miami in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, forcing Game 7 tonight. After winning the first three games of this series, the Heat have now lost three consecutive matchups, with the Celtics carrying enormous momentum into tonight’s matchup. No team in NBA history has overcome a 3-0 deficit in 150 opportunities. In fact, only four teams (including Boston)  have actually been able to even force a Game 7. 

Will Boston do the impossible, and make history by advancing to the NBA Finals? Can Miami actually find the resiliency to win a Game 7 on the road? Our FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the playoffs, so make sure to check out our biggest edges on tonight’s “win or go home” battle in Beantown. 

NBA Best Bets

Boston Celtics

Derrick White Over 2.5 3PM

(-113, FanDuel)

Boston went with a small lineup in Game 6, starting Derrick White in place of center Robert Williams. Derrick White has played 37 or more minutes in each of the past two games, including 42 in his brilliant Game 6 performance. White has hit three or more 3Ps in every game of this series, including six in Game 5 at home. White is simply too hot to fade and is projected for substantial minutes once again. White has beat this number in the last three home games, six of the last ten home games against Miami. I don’t think Malcolm Brogdon plays again, which solidifies the chance to ride the scalding hot White yet again from deep. 

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler Under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists 

(-123, Caesars)

I love betting Jimmy Butler rebounds/assists overs, but this number is too high for a Game 7. These games project as slower-paced matchups, and this number is inflated about Butler’s 19 RA night in Game 6. Butler should shoot better and look to attack the basket more, making his total for this prop more reasonable. He has been under this number in five of the last six games, 14 of his last 20 contests, and 14 of the last 17 games against Boston. I would expect this number to fall to 13.5 by game time. 

Miami Heat 

Duncan Robinson Under 8.5 Points

(-125, DraftKings)

I always fade role players in huge playoff games. The pace slows and baskets are at a premium. Duncan Robinson has beaten this number in four of six games in this series, and averaged 15.5 Points the last two contests. However, Robinson is still just over this number in 50% of his last 10 contests, and could see fewer minutes if Kyle Lowry gives a strong Game 7 performance. He is a superb shooter, but a defensive liability. After the last two games, it would seem too easy to simply bet this over yet again. I’m going to fade the Miami role player in a game I expect to stay close throughout.