Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Celtics earned a comfortable 110-97 victory over Miami in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, forcing a Game 6 in Miami Saturday. After winning the first three games of this series, the Heat have now lost two consecutive matchups and have Boston carrying enormous momentum into this matchup. No team in NBA history has overcome a 3-0 deficit in 150 opportunities. In fact, only three teams have actually been able to even force a Game 7. However, after the last two matchups, the Celtics are very much alive in for a trip to the NBA Finals.
Will the Heat end this series in Miami, advancing to the NBA Finals as an 8-seed? Can Boston find a way to get this series back to the TD Garden for a Game 7, and pull off the seemingly impossible? Our FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the playoffs, so make sure to check out our biggest edges on Saturday’s exciting Game 6 contest in Miami.
NBA Best Bets
Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 Points
(-125, PointsBet)
I’m going to follow the trend here with Bam Adebayo, who has been under this number in three straight games. Boston has prioritized limiting his scoring chances, which has coincided with two straight wins. He has fallen short of this number in 10 of the last 19 against the Celtics, and a shocking 13 of the last 17 at home. I’m projecting a close, low-scoring game, and the Boston defense should continue to limit Adebayo’s opportunities.
Kevin Love Under 4.5 Points
(+102, Unibet)
Kevin Love is only averaging 12.4 minutes per game in this series, with most of those coming in the first quarter. The increased production for Caleb Martin has limited Love, who is overly reliant on the 3P to provide production. We could certainly get burned by two early 3Ps, but our FTN projection only has Love at 3.95 points. I always fade marginal scorers in critical situations, and it doesn’t get more important than this. We are going under on Love’s very low line as an attractive plus-money wager.
Jimmy Butler Over 29.5 Points
(-104, Unibet)
Big-game Jimmy will be ready. Jimmy Butler’s scoring has increased during the playoffs, as the Miami superstar has crested 30 points five times in the last ten home games. He will see massive minutes tonight as the Heat try to close out Boston and reach the NBA Finals. We have Butler projected for 30.2 points, which gives credence to taking the lower 28.5 points at higher juice. I am pushing my luck in a closeout Game 6 at home. I expect a vintage Big-Game Jimmy performance in the biggest game of the season for Miami.
