Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Happy Mother’s Day to all the real heroes in our lives!
To celebrate this wonderful day, the NBA has gifted us a fantastic Game 7 matchup in Boston. The Celtics stayed alive with a fantastic fourth-quarter rally on Thursday night, winning a critical Game 6 in Philadelphia, 95-86. Boston forward Jayson Tatum missed his first 14-of-15 shots from the floor but hit four 3Ps in the fourth quarter to propel the Celtics to victory. The winner of today’s matchup will advance to the Eastern Conference Finals to battle the Miami Heat for a trip to the NBA Finals. The sportsbooks have Boston as a clear 6.5-point home favorite with a very low 201-point over/under.
Our FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season, so make sure to check out our biggest edges on today’s exciting Game 7 battle in Beantown.
NBA Best Bets
Boston Celtics
Derrick White Over 7.5 Points
(-125, DraftKings)
The FTN Model loves Derrick White in Game 7, and so do we. White moved to the bench for Game 6 but still plays a critical role for the Celtics. He has beaten this prop in four of the six games in this series and averaged 17.3 PPG in the first-round victory over Atlanta. Even against Philadelphia, he is posting 10 PPG and still averaging 28.8 PPG. Our model projects White for 14.3 points, equating to a 77.4% win probability and a 22.8% betting edge.
Jayson Tatum Under 29.5 Points
(-109, Caesars)
While we expect a bounceback game from Jayson Tatum after a woeful Game 6, I have concerns that the injury to his wrist is limiting his effectiveness. Even when healthy, he has struggled to hit this number against Philadelphia. Tatum has gone under 29.5 points in 79% of his games against the 76ers this year and four of the last five in this series. We project Tatum for just 25.8 points, equating to a 65.9% win probability on this number.
Robert Williams Under 7.5 Rebounds
(+106, FanDuel)
Robert Williams was a surprise starter in Game 6 and posted nine rebounds in 28 minutes. However, that rate is significantly higher than every other game in this series. In the prior five combined games, Williams totaled just 23 rebounds in 91 minutes, equating to just 0.25 rebounds per minute played. If he maintains that rate today, he would need 30 minutes to be right at this number. With a Game 7 that should be tightly contested, we only project Williams for 6.4 rebounds, showing a value at +106 on FanDuel. Our model has this prop with a 14.3% edge and a 64.3% win probability. I’m fading Williams’ big Game 6 even if he starts again.
