Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Thursday night brings us two closeout opportunities in the NBA playoffs, as Philadelphia and Denver each hold 3-2 leads in their respective conference semifinal matchups. The 76ers shocked the Celtics in Game 5, earning a surprising 115-103 victory in Boston. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey combined for 63 points, while James Harden fell just two rebounds short of a triple-double. In the Western Conference, the Suns will need to find a way to extend their series with a Game 6 victory at home. The home team has held serve in each of the first five games, with the Nuggets posting a 118-102 win Tuesday behind an incredible 29/13/12 line from Nikola Jokic.
Both games carry a spread of three points or fewer, projecting two close matchups as expected. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season, so make sure to check out our biggest edges on the NBA Thursday slate.
NBA Best Bets
Tyrese Maxey Under 2.5 3PM
(+100, BetMGM)
Fading the big game here.
Tyrese Maxey was scalding hot in Game 5, scoring 30 points while shooting 50% (6-of-12) from beyond the arc. However, that has been the exception for Maxey in recent history. He has fallen short of this number in three of the five games against Boston, and nine of his 12 games against the Celtics this season. Maxey is a streaky shooter, and actually went under this number 65% of the time this season, playoffs included. Even when playing at home, Maxey has gone under 2.5 3PM in 60% of the time over his last ten games. In his last 20 home games? The same percentage holds.
There is a ton of variance on this prop, with -122 juice on some books. I’ll grab the +100 value at BetMGM and fade Maxey’s huge Game 5 night.
Joel Embiid Over 29.5 Points
(-122, BetRivers)
Joel Embiid’s points prop carries our largest edge on our NBA Betting Model, with an 8.8% edge on the 30.5 line at FanDuel. The Celtics do not have an answer for Embiid, who should continue to get open looks and multiple trips to the free-throw line. He is averaging 19.3 FGAs per game, while shooting 87% on 11.5 FTA per contest. Embiid has posted 30 or more points in three consecutive games against Boston, while cresting this number 58% of the time throughout this season. Most books have this at 30.5 points, I’ll pay the slightly higher juice and take it at 29.5.
Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 Points
(-123, Caesars)
Our FTN model projects Jayson Tatum for only 29.3 points, despite the juice favoring over 29.5 points at most books. Tatum is coming off a 36-point performance in Game 5, but that was tethered to 27 FGA. Boston needs more balance to stay competitive, and I expect Jaylen Brown and especially Al Horford (0-of-7 FG) to be much more involved. Tatum has been under this number in seven of the last 10 games, three of the last five games, and an overwhelming 77% of the time against Philadelphia this season.
