Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Jayson Tatum o28.5 points
(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jayson Tatum has topped this number in four of his last five games and continues to regularly see 40 minutes a night in this Boston playoff rotation. Although it’s not a great matchup, Joel Embiid being out helps, and my model projects Tatum for 30+ here.
Jamal Murray 31.5 Points + Assists
(-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Jamal Murray continues to see increased usage here in the playoffs, as the two-man action between Nikola Jokic and Murray is the main focus of this Denver offense. Murray scored 34 points alone last game with nine assists. My model has him for nearly 26 points and eight assists in Game 2.
