Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There is nothing better than a Game 7, and we have a fantastic matchup today between Golden State and Sacramento. The Kings impressed with a resilient 118-99 Game 6 road victory, to force today’s matchup at that Golden 1 Center. Also, we have the start of a fantastic second-round series at Madison Square Garden, with the No. 5 seeded New York Knicks battling the surprising No. 8 seeded Miami Heat. Both games provide us fantastic opportunities for NBA Prop Bets. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season and is scalding hot in the playoffs. Please make sure you check back throughout the day for potential injury updates.
NBA Best Bets for Sunday
Jordan Poole Over 14.5 Points
(-105, BetMGM)
The FTN model loves Jordan Poole today, projecting the Warriors guard to post 17.4 points, equating to an 11.3% edge. Poole has struggled at times in this series, and is coming off a brutal 2 of 11 shooting performance in Game 6. He has seen big scoring performances in this series when he attacks the basket, which should happen in a desperation Game 7. Poole has three games against the Kings where he totaled 14 points or more, including a 22-point outburst in Game 4. He beat this number in two of the three regular-season games when he played at least 20 minutes. This is our top Prop Bet for either game today, as clearly indicated in our FTN Props Tool.
Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points
(-115, PointsBet)
I believe in Brunson, who has extremely produced in the Cleveland series despite poor efficiency. The key to his scoring is volume, as he has clearly established himself as the top scoring option for New York. Brunson averaged 20.6 FGA per game against the Cavaliers, seven more than the nearest player (R.J. Barrett). That level of volume should equate to scoring against a Miami team that is without defensive stopper, Victor Oladipo.
Brunson averaged exactly 24.5 PPG at home this season, but shot 41.7% from 3P range. Against Cleveland, he only shot 29.7% from deep, but is now facing a Miami team that is generous to opposing point guards from beyond the arc. The Heat allowed the third-most 3PM to the position during the regular season. I’m grabbing this the over on this number, with Brunson projected for 27.6 points by our model. That equates to an 11.3% edge and 63.6% win probability.
Kyle Lowry Under 8.5 Assists
(+100, PointsBet)
The New York perimeter defense has been very strong, providing resistance to both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland in the prior series. Both players were held to under 44% against the Knicks, which I expect to translate to Kyle Lowry today. Lowry averaged just 7.6 points against Milwaukee, a team that is very generous to outside shooting from guards. In two games against the Knicks this season, he posted 14 points and three points, illustrating his high per-game scoring variance. Lowry also shot much worse in road games, shooting below 40% from the field away from Miami. It’s very “feast or famine” with Lowry, but we like our model projection of 6.7 points and an 8.1% edge.
