Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saturday was “control day” in the NBA Playoffs.
All four teams won by eight points or more, featuring Phoenix taking a commanding 3-1 lead over the Clippers, and the 76ers finishing off a 4-0 sweep of Brooklyn. Today’s game project to be much closer, with four point spreads of six points or fewer. Each game is a pivotal Game 3, with Denver having an opportunity to finish off a 4-0 sweep of Minnesota in a Game 4. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season, so make sure to find where we project our biggest edges on the NBA Sunday slate.
NBA Best Bets
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
Under 231.5
(-110, DraftKings)
Game 3 featured an absurd scoring output, with both teams combining for 37 made 3Ps. That is unlikely to happen again, especially against the Celtics defense. On the Boston side, I also don’t project Grant Williams and Marcus Smart to combine for 9-of-16 (56.3%) from beyond the arc.
After winning the first two games easily, look for Boston to regain a defensive efficiency that ranked second-best during the regular season. Our FTN Betting Model projects this game to land at 225 points, providing over a 10% edge to bettors. In a critical Game 3, we always favor betting unders.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Anthony Edwards Under 27.5 Points
(-110, DraftKings)
Anthony Edwards has been fantastic in this series, averaging 31.7 PPG. However, that has not translated into wins for Minnesota. Edwards has averaged 43 minutes over the past two games and will need to play at least 40 minutes again to keep the Timberwolves from getting swept. However, I expect bigger scoring performances from the supporting cast and Denver to commit to limiting Edwards’ production.
I expect the over on this prop to be one of the more popular bets on Sunday, especially coming off consecutive 41 and 36-point nights. We are fading the public and fading Edwards, and our FTN Model agrees. We have Edwards at just 25.6 points, almost two full points below this number. Overall, we project this game to go under with over 80% probability.
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
Harrison Barnes Under 1.5 3PM
(-104, Caesars)
Harrison Barnes was an uncharacteristic 3-of-7 from beyond the arc last game, which is surprising for multiple reasons. He only averaged 1.6 made 3P per game and only attempted 4.7 per game during the regular season. In this series, he was just 1-of-7 from deep in the prior two games combined.
With the return of Draymond Green, we expect the Warriors defense to tighten and Barnes to have less scoring opportunities. Our model projects Barnes right at this number (1.56 3PM), which is exactly his average on the road this year. Barnes also shot worse from beyond the arc (36.5%) away from home during the regular season.
I’m taking the under on Barnes having another solid night from 3P range against a Golden State team that still trails just 2-1.
