Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s a Game 2 Thursday of NBA action Thursday night.
The postseason provides an interesting dynamic don’t get in the regular season. Teams place each other at least four games in a row and get at least one day (often two) of rest between matchups. Opponents have the opportunity to learn about each other and adapt their schemes from game to game. It’s fun to see which teams adjust and how they adjust as series progress.
From a betting perspective, odds tend to be static from game to game as long as the venue or list of available players doesn’t change. That means we can find value in what we see game-to-game in smaller markets that should adjust even though the full game odds should be mostly static.
Let’s see if we can do that Thursday as we go through each game, assess the matchup, review projections and hopefully find wagers worth our money.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Current Line – Celtics -13.5, 212.5
My Projection – Celtics 112, Cleveland 101
Key Injuries – Kristaps Porzingis and Dean Wade are out. Jarret Allen is questionable.
The Celtics looked as good as they have all season in Game 1. They shot 39% on 46 three-point shot attempts, won the possession battle by five, won all four quarters and won the game by 25. The Celtics were the heavy favorite and showed why they deserve to be. Jarrett Allen missed another game with a cracked rib, and Cleveland shot the ball poorly. There was, however, a silver lining in their performance. The Cavaliers, who averaged 36 three-point shots per game in the regular season and 31 in Round 1, shot 42 threes in the game. The only way they can beat Boston is by shooting a lot of threes every night and hope one night most of those shots go into the basket. Game 1 looked a lot like Celtics round one series against the Miami Heat who, like the Cavaliers, don’t have enough talent to beat Boston four times in seven games.
Game 1 odds closed with the Celtics as 12.5-point favorites and a total of 211.5. Each of those numbers have adjusted one point in the direction of the Game 1 results. Allen missed shootaround, and his availability will be decided just before the game tips. The market is assuming that he will not play given that the odds are so close to last game’s odds. Perhaps the Cavaliers are “more motivated” or “afraid to go down 0-2” or something like that, but Allen’s status is the only thing that should meaningfully impact the line. My projection hasn’t changed and I’m again close to what the books are hanging. I don’t see any value in betting the full game numbers, but like Game 1, I see some value in a derivative market.
The Celtics averaged over 60 points in the first half of games in the regular season and averaged 61 in the first half against the Miami Heat in Round 1. We bet over 57.5 in Game 1, and I’m betting over 58.5 here. Boston starts games fast to generate a lead that they can manage in the second half of the game. I make the Celtics’ first-half team total 60.5 points per game, and I’ll keep betting the over at 59.5 or lower. Maybe the pace slows down on the road or in close games, but that change generally happens in the second half. Give me the Celtics to score 59 or more points in the first half Thursday.
Bet
Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 58.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Line – Thunder -5, 218
My Projection – Thunder 113, Mavericks 107
Key Injuries – Maxi Kleber is out.
The Mavericks kept the score close in the first and third quarters of Game 1, but they lost the second and third quarters by 21 combined points. Luka Doncic continued his struggle to make three-pointers. He’s shooting 22% from beyond the arc in the playoffs and 14% since spraining his knee against the Clippers. Dallas lost the 41 minutes Doncic played by 21 points. Maybe it’s his knee, maybe it’s the Thunder’s great defenders, but if Luka can’t find a way to be effective, then the Mavericks are in trouble. Oklahoma City generated 11 extra possessions and shot 45% from the field and 45% from deep. They continue to play like one of the very best teams in the league and their youth and postseason inexperience hasn’t shown yet. It’s been an impressive start for the Thunder and there doesn’t seem to be any apparent reasons that might change.
The spread and total for Thursday’s game are effectively the same as they were in Game 1. Each is within half of a point from the first matchup and that makes perfect sense given that we haven’t changed location and are expecting the same players. My projections lean to OKC and the over although neither edge is big enough to bet. Generally, the team down a game will make some sort of adjustment in their scheme. Dallas needs to limit their turnovers and find a way to rebound better, but I’m not sure any of that matters if Luka Doncic continues to struggle to shoot. Ultimately, the Thunder have more depth and overall a better roster than the Mavericks. OKC could have the best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander if Luka can’t play well. If Doncic can summon his strength and play close to the level we saw all season he could in Dallas this game and this series. It’s just hard to know if or when that might happen.
There is, luckily, something I do think I know, and that is that the Thunder are going to win the first quarter and do so by at least a few points. Oklahoma City has a great crowd and homecourt advantage. The Thunder were the second-best team at home against the spread for the full game and also second best against the spread in the first quarter. Dallas should be more motivated tonight, but they have been a bad first-quarter team all season, especially on the road. The first frame of the first game finished in a tie. OKC shot just 39% but did well in every other metric. I bet the Thunder in the first quarter -1 in Game 1 and am going to do it again even at -1.5.
Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder 1st Quarter Spread -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
