NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/7)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Two more second-round NBA postseason series begin Tuesday night. Each series features a team that has had a week’s worth of rest against another team just a few days removed from the end of a tough first-round series. Will the rested teams be rusty or better prepared? Will the teams with just a few days off be in better form or still nursing any injuries?

We can’t say for sure either way. For Tuesday, be sure to note that both rested teams are at home and both teams that might still be feeling the effects of their previous series are on the road. That creates an interesting motivational dynamic. Will the road teams push hard late in games or sit their starters and rest up for Game 2? It will be an interesting night for betting second halves. I’ll share those bets in the FTN Bets Discord later if/when I make them.

For now, let’s break down both of Tuesday’s matchups and try to find some value in the betting markets.

NBA Best Bets for Tuesday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Current Line – Celtics -12.5, 211
My Projection – Celtics 112, Cleveland 101
Key Injuries – Kristaps Porzingis and Dean Wade are out. Jarret Allen is questionable.

The Cavaliers were able to win Game 7 at home against the Magic to advance to this round. Donovan Mitchell rose to the occasion when needed. Darius Garland played good basketball for the first time in a while. Evan Mobley was everywhere on defense. Cleveland was still outscored by 31 over the seven games against Orlando. The Cavaliers are a good team but not a great one, and that assumes they are healthy. Jarrett Allen is dealing with a cracked rib and hasn’t played in a week. Mitchell played every game in round one and is not on the injury report, but he is clearly managing some sort of knee problem. The bruises from round one are obvious and the challenges of round two are now front and center.

The Celtics cruised through their five-game series against the Heat. They lost one game, in which the Heat made 23 of 43 three-point attempts — quite a feat. The Celtics won the other four games by big margin. The problem for Boston is that Kristaps Porzingis is out with a calf strain for at least this series and possibly longer. They are still a great team and the best team in this series without KP, but without him they are not able to reach their ceiling. Luckily, that probably doesn’t matter in this series and the Celtics are primed to win another round in quick fashion. Boston has the guards to handle Mitchell & Garland as well as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who should be able to get whatever they want against Cleveland’s wings. They are a huge favorite to win this series and rightfully so.

The Celtics are also a big favorite to win here. They are favored by 12.5 points after being favored by 13.5 points against the Heat in Game 5 of the first round. That one-point adjustment is probably a little too small, but Jarrett Allen might not play, and there’s a chance the Cavaliers will punt this game if the Celtics run out to a big lead. Cleveland knows they can lose Game 1 and still have a chance to steal a road win in Game 2. At the very least, they still have a chance to come back to Boston even at two games apiece if they lose here and save their strength. It’s a tough motivational dynamic to handicap. My projections don’t show much an edge on the spread or the total for the full game and I don’t see any value in betting those markets.

There is, however, a bet I like in a smaller market. The Celtics’ first-half team total sits at 57.5 right now. The Celtics averaged over 60 points in the first half this season, and their team total was 60-plus almost every night. Pace does slow down in the postseason, but most of that happens in the second half. Boston averaged 61 points in the first half against the Heat, who are just as good defensively as the Cavaliers, if not better. Thinking about the flow of the game, I expect the Celtics to push pace and attack early as they have all season and try to put away the Cavaliers before halftime. That sets up a much easier second half where they can limit the minutes of their stars especially if Cleveland waves the white flag. Give the Celtics to score more than 57 points in the first half.

Bet

Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 57.5 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

Current Line – Thunder -3.5, 218
My Projection – Thunder 113, Mavericks 107
Key Injuries – Maxi Kleber is out.

The Mavericks played better as Round 1 went along and looked good for the last few games of their win over the Clippers. Kyrie Irving returned to be the big moment master we saw in the past. Dereck Lively II and Danie Gafford did well sharing duties as the center. PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. played great defense and were able to be positives on offense. Unfortunately, there were two problems. Luka Doncic picked up a cold and sprained his knee. He looked fatigued and limited on the floor and shot just 40% from the field and 24% from three-point range. The other issue is that Maxi Kleber dislocated his shoulder and is likely out for this entire series. If Luka is over his cold and able to manage his knee, then the Mavericks are still a scary opponent. If Luka’s knee causes him to play poorly or even miss games, then things get tricky for Dallas.

There were concerns about how a young Thunder roster would play in its first postseason. The playoffs are wildly different than the regular season, and it’s often a rude awakening the first-time players experience it. We saw some of that in Game 1 against the Pelicans where the Thunder barely held on to win by two points. It was heartening to see them grind out a tense win and even more heartening that they followed it up with three big wins. The Thunder have a star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a great three-&-D player in Jalen Williams, and a multi-talented big man in Chet Holmgren. Mark Daigneault is a good coach and there is plenty of talented depth on the roster for him to use. I’m sure their inexperience will show at times, but I think when youth is your only “problem” then you have a pretty good team.

If it isn’t already obvious, I like the Thunder to win this series. I think they have the better team, the better coach, and could have the best player if Luka is less than 100%. OKC closed as 7.5-point favorites in Game 2 of Round 1, which was their last game at home. The market has adjusted that down four points, which is fair given Luka should be fresh and healthy after a few days rest. Doncic is listed as questionable, but keep an eye on his play during the game. Also, don’t be surprised if the Mavericks shut him down if OKC has a big lead late. I make the Thunder six-point favorites, which is close to a bettable edge, but instead I’m going to bet them in the first quarter.

OKC was one of the best teams in the league against the spread in the first quarter this season, especially at home. Oklahoma City has an underrated home court advantage, and the market has underestimated them at home all season. The Mavericks were a bad first-quarter team regardless of location this season. For whatever reason, they start slow and play well in the second quarter. I don’t expect any of that to change and the books are giving us a chance to back the home team that’s dominated the first 12 minutes all season to win the first quarter by a spread of just one point. I’ll bet that happily.