Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The first round of the NBA playoffs is drawing close to the end. All four of the remaining series are headed to Game 6, with one team having a chance to close things out with a win. Will they play their best basketball knowing that they have a lead and can end things? Will that cause pressure and lead to nervous plays that cost them the victory?
There is drama all over the court and even off the court Thursday. Two star players who have been listed as doubtful since Wednesday might play, and one has even been “upgraded” to questionable, which is oxymoronic although funny to say.
All season fans have clamored for games that matter, and that’s exactly what we have. Let’s go through both of Thursday’s matchups, review the series so far, take a look at projections and try to find a wager worthy of our money.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
Current Line – Pacers -6, 217
My Projection – Pacers 114, Bucks 110
Key Injuries – Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful. Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard are questionable.
Without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, the Bucks won Game 5 as 5.5-point underdogs. Milwaukee had their best shooting performance of the series, won the possession battle and shot seven more free throws in their 23-point win over Indiana. Myles Turner and Andrew Nembhard were OK, but the rest of the Pacers played poorly in their first chance to win this series. It’s concerning that they were unable to beat a Bucks team that doesn’t have much talent without their two stars, Giannis and Dame. Maybe the best way to describe that problem is to mention that Milwaukee won the 32 minutes Pat Connaughton played by 21 points. Indiana is a younger team and it’s the first postseason for most of their players. That can lead to nerves, especially on the road. The Pacers now have even more pressure to win at home with rumors that Giannis and Dame could play in game seven if not sooner.
In Game 3, in Indiana with Lillard playing and Giannis out, the Pacers closed as 6.5-point favorites. In Game 4, in Indiana with no Lillard and no Giannis, the Pacers closed as 10-point favorites. Currently, the line for Game 6 sits at Pacers -6, but has been moving around all morning. It was reported that Giannis and Lillard are “working toward playing” and Lillard was “upgraded” to questionable. Based on the spread right now, since we are close to the Game 3 line, the market seems to think Lillard is in and Giannis is out tonight. That seems fair to me but I don’t think anyone really knows which, if any, of Milwaukee’s best players will be on the floor. Even if they can play, we also don’t know how healthy or in game shape Giannis and Lillard are at this moment. If both play, but are clearly limited then it might actually makes things easier for the Pacers who attack with speed and athleticism. There’s just too much unknown about this game to bet it right now.
Bet
None
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Current Line – 76ers -3, 201
My Projection – 76ers 104, Knicks 99
Key Injuries – Bojan Bogdanovic is out. Joel Embiid and Mitchell Robinson are questionable.
The most entertaining series of the first round continues to deliver. Game 5 will likely be remembered as the Tyrese Maxey game. The Philadelphia guard hit a deep three-pointer to send the game into overtime and dominated those extra five minutes. For the first time in the series, the 76ers had more offensive rebounds than their opponent. The Knicks made the curious choice to leave Mitchell Robinson on the floor despite Joel Embiid looking exhausted. Isaiah Hartenstein, Precious Achuiwa or even OG Anunoby could have likely handled Embiid while providing more speed should any of them get switched onto Maxey. Robinson, who just returned from injury, looked slow and made a few bad fouls that helped the 76ers steal the win Madison Square Garden. The Knicks should be disappointed in their effort, but they still have two more chances to close out this series while the 76ers need to win the last two games to advance.
The previous two games in Philadelphia, Games 3 and 4, closed with the 76ers as favorites by five points. Game 5, in New York, closed with the Knicks as four-point favorites. So, Thursday is a seven-point adjustment from the last game, which should only be tied to the change in venue. The current spread is two points less than the last few games in Philadelphia. Maybe part of that is the return of Mitchell Robinson which should be a boon for the Knicks. I wonder if the part of that change is the market downgrading Embiid’s impact given how clearly limited he looks on the court. I don’t agree with the small change from Games 3 and 4, and I make the spread the same five points we saw then. It’s not a big enough edge to back the 76ers full game, but there is another angle I like.
Philadelphia has four of the five first quarters in this series. The 76ers have outscored the Knicks in the opening frame 139-106, an average of +6.6 points per first quarter. As I mentioned, Joel Embiid is clearly struggling with his knee and his fitness. That becomes clear as the game goes on, but he’s still fresh at the start of games and plays the opening 10-plus minutes every game. That gives Philadelphia an advantage in the first quarter that I believe is not being priced into the market. The spread for the first quarter hasn’t been weighted enough to reflect the substitution patterns and how much better Embiid is at the start of games. I’ll take the 76ers -1 in the first quarter.
Bet
Philadelphia 76ers 1st Quarter -1 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
