NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/16)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I know some people are bummed when there is just one game in the NBA like there is Thursday. Of course, more basketball is always more better, but a standalone game offers us a chance to really lock in and cherish it.

We have nothing to distract us from 40-plus minutes of Anthony Edwards and Nikola Jokic plying their trade. Jokic is playing as good as he ever has, and Edwards looks ready to compete for the MVP next season. Can Jokic and the Nuggets finish an incredible comeback and win their fourth game in a row? Will Edwards take it upon himself to carry the Timberwolves to victory? I have no idea, but I sure am excited to find out what happens.

Let’s review the series to date, see how the odds compare to the previous games, and try to find some value in the betting markets.

NBA Best Bets for Thursday

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Current Line – Timberwolves -2.5, 205
My Projection – Nuggets
Key Injuries – Jamal Murray and Mike Conley are questionable.

The Nuggets have taken back control of this series and have a chance to close things out with a win here. The Timberwolves won both games in Denver to start. Minnesota were 12-point underdogs combined in Games 1 and 2 and won those games by 33 points combined. They were lead by their incredible defensive performance, which kept the Nuggets to an offensive rating of 98.2, 19.6 less than their regular season average, in the first two games. Anthony Edwards was scoring points in bunches and talking a lot of trash and deservedly so. Minnesota was being compared to the best defensive teams of all time. It looked like Denver’s chances at a second consecutive title were gone.

Suddenly, things changed dramatically for the Nuggets. Mike Malone used Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic to bring the ball up the floor, which freed Jamal Murray to move off the ball and engaged Gordon. Murray is shooting 50% from the field and 41% from three in the last few games. Gordon is averaging over 19 points per game, five more than his regular season average, over the last few games. Oh, and Nikola Jokic is back to being a seemingly unstoppable force on offense. Defensively, Denver started to double team Edwards getting the ball out of his hands and forcing other players to score. The Timberwolves averaged 98 points in Games 3-5 after scoring 106 points in Game 1 and Game 2. This series looks much different than it did 10 days ago.

Game 5 closed with the Nuggets favored by 4.5 points and the total set at 204.5. The total is basically the same as it was the last two games which seems fair to me. The spread has been adjusted six points for the change in venue. That makes the spread just one point different than it was for Games 3 and 4 when the Timberwolves closed -3.5. Mike Conley is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play, which is very important for Minnesota. As I mentioned earlier, Denver has been forcing the ball out of Anthony Edwards’ hands and Conley is the only other player on the Timberwolves who can handle the ball and create offense reliably. If Conley can play, this spread looks right to me. If Conley can not play, then the Nuggets suddenly become a very intriguing underdog. Keep an eye on the FTN Bets Discord. If reports are incorrect and Conley is out, I’ll likely back the Nuggets full game and I’ll post that bet in the #nba-plays channel.

For now, I’m going to make a bet that regular readers of Hoops with Noops probably already know is coming. The Nuggets were the best team in the NBA against the spread in the first quarter this season and they are 4-1 in the first 12 minutes of games in this series. Denver knows the value of an early lead, and they play Jokic almost the entire first quarter. That gives them an advantage early, which lets them take control of the game. The Timberwolves have struggled all season to start games, even at home. Maybe tonight is different because they know it’s a must win situation and that makes any team dangerous. I’m going to keep backing the Nuggets early anyway. I bet the spread for Denver in the first quarter Thursday.

Bet

Denver Nuggets First Quarter +1 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)