Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Three first-round series in the NBA playoffs continue Tuesday. Two teams are facing elimination, and two are effectively restarting their series.
The 76ers and Bucks — two teams with championship aspirations before the season — are down 3 games to 1 and will end their season if they lose here. Both teams have been mired in injury issues and seem unlikely to make the miracle comeback needed to stay alive in the chase for the title. Will they play with the fire of desperation or pack things up and look ahead to their offseason plans? The Cavaliers and Magic are tied two games apiece, which means we now have a best-of-three series. Cleveland won the first two games and Orlando that last two. Will the home team hold serve, or can the Magic carry their momentum over to game five and beat the Cavaliers again?
There’s a lot to figure out, so let’s go through each game, look at projections and expectations, and try to find some value in the betting markets. To the hoops!
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Current Line – Knicks -4, 203
My Projection – Knicks 102, 76ers 99
Key Injuries – Joel Embiid and Mitchell Robinson are questionable.
Game 4 was much like Games 1 and 2 of this series. The 76ers won the first quarter and then lost the game. Philadelphia has struggled to rebound in every game, and it was a very serious problem late in the previous game. It seemed like the Knicks had at least two shots per possession at the end of the game which allowed them more chances to score. Joel Embiid looked exhausted and struggled to score in the final quarter. Of course, he is dealing with a bad left knee and is trying to play himself into shape, but that seems to be the story every postseason. Jalen Brunson scored 47 points, a record for New York, and for the second consecutive game looked like the best player on the floor. The Knicks are now back in Madison Square Garden with a 3-1 lead in the series and a chance to advance to the second round for the second season in a row.
The 76ers closed as five-point favorites at home in Games 3 and 4. We’re looking at Knicks -4, which is basically the same line we saw in Games 1 and 2. I think that’s fair, although maybe undervaluing the Knicks a bit. New York has been the better team for most of this series and there’s a chance Joel Embiid might miss the game. He’s been dealing with a migraine today and might not be able to play through it. Of course, if Embiid is out the Knicks will shoot up to 9/10-point favorites. The current spread assumes Embiid will play, but that’s never something you can be sure of until he’s standing on the court ready to take the tip.
The total in this series was 208 in Game 1, 206.5 in Game 2 and 205 in Game 3. Game 4 saw that number bumped up to 209. That upward move was a reflection of the improved shooting from each team in game three, but Game 4 looked more like the first two games, which leads us to Tuesday’s total of 203. If this is a competitive game, I think it will look a lot like game four where the pace slowed to a crawl, and there weren’t enough free throws late to get even 190 points. My projections lean to the under, but it’s too small of an edge to play knowing there’s a chance Embiid misses the game and maybe the 76ers just quit at a certain point knowing they’re unlikely to win the three games in a row needed to win the series. I don’t see any value in betting anything right now. Maybe things will change when Embiid is officially in or out, so keep an eye on the FTN Bets Discord when that happens. I’ll post any bets I make there if/when I make them.
Bet
None
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Line – Cavaliers -4.5, 201.5
My Projection – Cavaliers 103, Magic 100
Key Injuries – Dean Wade is out. Jarret Allen is questionable.
The home team has won every game of this series by at least 10 points, and the home team won six of the eight quarters in their home games. Looking a little deeper, the Magic have been the better team. Orlando has outscored Cleveland by 37 points through the first four games. To no surprise, a young Magic squad looked nervous and struggled to score in the first playoff games of their careers on the road. After settling down and winning both games in Orlando, they are shooting better than Cleveland from the field and from behind the arc. If the Magic can continue to score like they did the last two games, then they will win this series and possibly even do that in six games. If having to play on the road makes them uncomfortable and they struggle to shoot well, they might be in danger of losing this series in Game 6 at home.
Games 3 and 4 closed with the Magic favored by three points and a total of 202. Tuesday, we are one point away from what we saw in Games 1 and 2 when the Cavaliers closed as 5.5-point favorites. That small move is likely because Jarrett Allen might miss the game. It’s only one point that leads me to believe that the market expects Allen to play, but keep an eye on his status, which impacts the spread and the total. If he plays, then these current odds look about right to me. If Allen can’t be on the court, then I might bet an over or back the Magic if the spread doesn’t move too much. His impact will be felt mostly for Cleveland on defense and might allow Orlando to continue the offensive efficiency they showed at home. For now, I’m not betting anything, but this is another game where I might have a bet later in the day. You can find those potential bets in the Discord.
Bet
None
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
Current Line – Pacers -4.5, 215.5
My Projection – Pacers 113, Bucks 107
Key Injuries – Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are doubtful. Tyrese Haliburton is questionable.
The Bucks have now lost three games in a row and have lost seven of their nine against the Pacers this season. It was a bad matchup for Milwaukee even with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard and things look even bleaker with both players doubtful. The Bucks have a limited roster without their top two players. Khris Middleton has played his best basketball of the season, but it just hasn’t been enough to win games for Milwaukee against an Indiana team that could get even better. Tyrese Haliburton has made some key plays in big moments, but, overall, has played poorly. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner have picked up the slack and played well in every game. The Pacers have to win just one more game to close out this series and that is likely to happen soon.
Indiana closed Game 3 as 6.5-point favorites with Lillard available and as 10-point favorites in Game 4 without Lillard. The Pacers are now 4.5-point favorites on the road, which seems like a fair adjustment for the change in venue and the chance Haliburton might miss the game. As I mentioned, he has not played well, but Haliburton is still the most important player for Indiana. The Pacers don’t have another good point guard on the roster. T.J. McConnell is serviceable in the regular season, but his size and limited athletic ability has been attacked relentlessly in the playoffs. I’m close to the current odds if he can play which seems to be the expectation as of now. If Haliburton misses the game, the Bucks might be an intriguing underdog, but I can’t advise a bet on either side of this game at this time.
My projections do show some value to be had in the total. Game 1 had a total of 230, Games 2 and 3 were set at 223, and Game 4 closed at 214.5, which is close to what we see here. I am well over that number. Three of four games so far have had a pace of 94 or higher. Offensive efficiency has been good for both teams at 118 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers themselves have an offensive rating of 120 for the series despite an offensive rating of 96 in game one. I’m not quite saying that they will continue at the clip of 128-plus we’ve seen the last three games, but if Indiana is even close to that level of efficiency, they will score well over their current team total. I have them projected for 113 points, and I see more upside than downside in what my model is showing. I’m wagering on over 110.5 points scored for the Pacers.
Bet
Indiana Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)
